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Published 18th October 2024

Vol 65 No 21


Sudan

Fight for Darfur and Khartoum intensifies

SUDAN: Rival armies step up fight for Khartoum and El Fasher
SUDAN: Rival armies step up fight for Khartoum and El Fasher

Buoyed by foreign backers and ignoring civilian casualties, both Burhan and Hemeti claim a breakthrough is in sight

For the next few months of the dry season, the rival factions look set to concentrate their forces in the devastating battles for control of two cities and environs – the capital Khartoum and El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. With no constraints on tactics and weapons used – mostly supplied by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey, Russia, Belarus, China and Iran – tens of thousands of civilians will be caught in the fighting. They will have little chance of finding a passage out nor will relief agencies be able or allowed to meet the rising demand for emergency medicine and foodstuffs.

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Mahamat Kaka’s Darfur policy starts blowing back

Pic: @GmahamatIdi
Pic: @GmahamatIdi

The Zaghawa are turning against the President’s arms shipment deals with the UAE and backing for Hemeti’s RSF militia

Two raging urban battles – in Khartoum and El Fasher in North Darfur – could determine the next stage in Sudan’s devastating war: the de facto partition of...


Mondlane’s vote surge overturns the status quo

Pic venamondlane FB
Pic venamondlane FB

Railing against joblessness and hardship, young voters deserted Frelimo and long-time opposition Renamo

Ruling party Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) and leading opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, an independent who ran on the ticket of the tiny Partido Otimista pelo Desinvolvimento...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

At a European Parliament hearing on 8 October about the humanitarian crisis caused by the civil war, EU officials and MEPs asked how they could raise media coverage of Sudan’s ‘forgotten’ war. It is a remarkable but accurate indictment and description of a war has killed tens of thousands, displaced more than eight million people and left more than half of Sudan’s population urgently needing humanitarian aid.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have received more...

At a European Parliament hearing on 8 October about the humanitarian crisis caused by the civil war, EU officials and MEPs asked how they could raise media coverage of Sudan’s ‘forgotten’ war. It is a remarkable but accurate indictment and description of a war has killed tens of thousands, displaced more than eight million people and left more than half of Sudan’s population urgently needing humanitarian aid.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have received more attention but another major reason why the war has become so intractable is because regional powers have used it as a proxy conflict.

Attempts to mediate a ceasefire by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others have failed because none are seen by either side as honest brokers.

On 17 October, EU leaders are expected to express ‘deepest concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Sudan’ and call for an immediate ceasefire. The day before, at a summit with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council as Africa Confidential went to press, EU leaders largely failed to tackle the United Arab Emirates' military support for the Rapid Support Forces. Though Saudi Arabia and Qatar support General Abdel Fattah al Burhan’s Sudan Armed Forces, Abu Dhabi’s supply of weapons to the RSF is the most egregious case of foreign interference. Ending the proxy war has become vital to ending a conflict which now threatens to spill into neighbouring states.

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Evidence of vote stealing mounts

Independent monitors and all the opposition parties question the credibility of the presidential and parliamentary elections

The state-backed Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE) has released results from each province, indicating a strong win for the ruling party Frelimo. It has until 25 October to...


Austerity hits foreign policy reset

A row over shrinking aid funds will complicate the launch of the promised new Africa strategy

Budgetary cuts, domestic priorities and personnel wrangles have dominated the early months of Britain’s new Labour government – to the detriment of its planned ‘reset’ of foreign policy....


Wild card Mondlane tests ruling party’s election tactics

After 50 years in power, Frelimo’s right to rule is on the ballot and national politics will see a generational change

On 9 October, ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) faces its toughest election since multi-party politics started in 1994. A wild card quasi-independent candidate has shaken up...


Tinubu dismantles the opposition in Edo

The President’s party wins a key governorship race but it’s tarnished by claims of voter fraud

President Bola Tinubu ate his dish of revenge lukewarm last month when he orchestrated the defeat of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the Edo State...


The gold rush that poisons politics

Campaigners are pressuring the vested interests profiting from galamsey mining in both parties ahead of the election

In response to growing outrage at the damage to farmland, livelihoods and the wider economy caused by galamsey mining, the government has promised to set up four specialised...


Junta’s stance threatens uranium exports

In its haste to expel western mining companies, the junta risks being left with no one to exploit its most valuable export

General Abdourahamane Tiani’s military junta has carried out its threat to revoke the uranium mining licences of companies deemed not to have progressed their projects quickly enough, but...


Fear and loathing off and on the campaign trail

President Saïed confected an election win that no one takes seriously as he lashes out at civil society

With the most credible opposition figures in detention or boycotting the presidential election on 6 October, Kaïs Saïed’s victory was pre-ordained and pointless at the same time. It...



Pointers

A two-horse race

Despite Kenyan ministers publicly claiming to have at least 26 votes locked up for Raila Odinga, many pundits believe that the battle to lead the African Union Commission...