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Published 20th September 2024

Vol 65 No 19


Egypt

Middle powers line up behind Addis and Mogadishu

GEOPOLITICS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: Military power and shifting alignments. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
GEOPOLITICS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: Military power and shifting alignments. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Egypt and Somalia have signed a military pact to scupper Ethiopia’s trade-off with Somaliland for a port in the Gulf of Aden

Nothing better illustrates the radical shift in regional relations than the defence agreement signed by Egypt and the Federal Government of Somalia on 14 August, two days after Ankara failed to broker a settlement between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.

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MK pins its hopes on Shivambu

Floyd Shivambu. Pic: Emacous Photography
Floyd Shivambu. Pic: Emacous Photography

The new national organiser, who defected from the EFF, is expected to develop clearer policies for the struggling party

Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has wasted no time in getting its policy tsar to work, laying on motorcades around the provinces with local MK leaders, political...


Tensions around farcical leadership battle

El Sadeek Omer el Kabir. Pic: cbl.gov.ly

The sacking of the central bank governor triggered another round of factional infighting, disrupting oil production and exports

In a sea of disinformation, private agendas and shifting alliances, Libya moves from one crisis to another. The latest centres on the Presidency Council’s decision to sack the...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The question of whether Africa should have permanent seats on the UN Security Council will be on the agenda at the UN General Assembly starting on 24 September. The United States Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has called for two permanent seats for Africa and a third new permanent seat for small island states vulnerable to climate change. The US also backed calls for India, Japan and Germany to have permanent seats on the Council.

Africa currently has three n...

The question of whether Africa should have permanent seats on the UN Security Council will be on the agenda at the UN General Assembly starting on 24 September. The United States Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has called for two permanent seats for Africa and a third new permanent seat for small island states vulnerable to climate change. The US also backed calls for India, Japan and Germany to have permanent seats on the Council.

Africa currently has three non-permanent seats on the Security Council: member states serve for two years and the seats are rotated around the region. But that doesn’t allow African countries ‘to deliver the full benefit of their knowledge and voices,’ according to Thomas-Greenfield.

Under the US plan, none of the African seats or other new permanent seats would have veto power. That’s likely to be a deal breaker unless the current permanent five agree to surrender their veto powers or constrain them.

There is no clarity on which countries would take Africa’s seats. If the African Union took one, the continent’s biggest states would jostle for the other, citing the need for geographical and geopolitical balance. Power blocs such as the European Union and the BRICS, and their individual member states, have joined calls for permanent African seats on the Council but also lack a clear plan. Fixing this is key to international reform.

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President Macron plans military cuts

Phasing down security operations in West and Central Africa, Paris keeps its diplomatic and economic ambitions

Plans for a drastic pruning back of France’s military deployments in Africa could be confirmed within weeks as Paris adapts to the reality of widespread resentment of its...


Three old hats in the presidential ring

Next year’s election will see two previous presidents take on an incumbent still struggling to make his mark amid a sea of scandal and a tanking economy

In less than a year, Malawians go to the polls for the eighth time since the return of multi-party elections in 1994 but this time, the choice is...


Vaccine shortfall risks spread of deadly new mpox strain

Disputes over pricing between Big Pharma and African states delayed response as did poor testing and surveillance

It took less than a year for the virus to resurface in Congo-Kinshasa after the World Health Organization (WHO) had announced in May 2023 that the global mpox...


Home-grown reforms and political muscle seal $3.4bn IMF deal

Government forecasts strong growth but its shifts on devaluation and economic liberalisation will have to show results quickly

Backed by a US$3.4 billion IMF extended credit facility (ECF), Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration has a fighting chance to return the national finances to debt sustainability and...


How Tigray is turning on itself

The fight for control of the ruling TPLF is slowing the region’s post-war recovery and playing into the hands of the federal government

Instead of moving towards the much-discussed national reconciliation, Ethiopia is grappling with a new bout of regional factionalism. The two largest regions, Oromia and Amhara, are already plagued...



Pointers

Gas or hot air?

Brussels continues to push green hydrogen investment as a foreign policy and energy tool, with European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, unveiling a series of new programmes during...


Beijing leads battle for influence

Although most western media paid it little attention, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, held from 4 to 6 September, received near wall-to-wall coverage across swathes of Africa. FOCAC’s...