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Published 18th January 2024

Vol 65 No 2

Ethiopia

Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding'

Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

A hasty deal offering recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty and a port for Ethiopia has angered the region

By announcing a trade-off on New Year's Day – putative recognition of Somaliland's 'independence' in exchange for access to the Gulf of Aden – Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Somaliland counterpart Muse Bihi Abdi have united the region against them, ramping up tensions at a highly volatile time.

Genocide case tests the UN system

International Court of Justice, 12 January 2024. Pic: UN Photo/ICJ-CIJ/Frank van Beek @CIJ_ICJ
International Court of Justice, 12 January 2024. Pic: UN Photo/ICJ-CIJ/Frank van Beek @CIJ_ICJ

Ramaphosa is reaping political dividends by taking on the Netanyahu government at the Hague

Whether South Africa has made a plausible case to prove Israel has violated the genocide convention with its bombardment of Gaza is likely to be decided at the...

Global alliances trounce human rights

Pic: @UN_HRC
Pic: @UN_HRC

Backroom machinations have landed Morocco the coveted chair of the UN’s leading human rights body

Elections to the presidency of the 47-member UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) are normally a routine affair. But this year, Israel and Morocco's concerns that the issues of...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The start of production this week, after years of delay, of the Dangote Group's $18.5 billion oil refinery opens a brave new world for Nigeria's oil and gas sector, after 50 years of dependence on refined petroleum products from Europe. The refinery will initially produce diesel and aviation fuel, then ramp up production over the next year or more to reach 650,000 barrels a day of refined products, including petrol.

Aside from the new jobs created at the plant in Lagos, the refinery c...

The start of production this week, after years of delay, of the Dangote Group's $18.5 billion oil refinery opens a brave new world for Nigeria's oil and gas sector, after 50 years of dependence on refined petroleum products from Europe. The refinery will initially produce diesel and aviation fuel, then ramp up production over the next year or more to reach 650,000 barrels a day of refined products, including petrol.

Aside from the new jobs created at the plant in Lagos, the refinery could transform Nigeria's economy and energy sector, cutting imports massively.

Aliko Dangote thanked President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on social media for his support and encouragement, but relations between the two have deteriorated badly. The Dangote Group is under investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and its Lagos offices were raided at the beginning of the year by anti-corruption investigators in relation to US dollars secured by Dangote from the central bank, which is the centre of a wider investigation.

Beyond the Dangote-Tinubu animus lies a bigger question about the lack of investors in Africa's biggest economy. Dangote says the commercial viability of the refinery would demonstrate Nigeria's capacity to build and run major capital projects. If that holds, why are more leading investors leaving the market than entering it?

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Royalty shows signs of stress

The King’s private life is causing alarm as questions about the succession increase alongside fears over drought and ‘normalisation’ with Israel

Deep discomfort in and out of the Palace is abroad over a resurgence of reports about King Mohammed VI's (M6) friendship with three Moroccan-German Mixed Martial Arts fighters...

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Harsh realities face Tshisekedi after vote

Its abundance of critical minerals encouraged outsiders to ignore election abuses but Congo's governance crisis holds up everything

Félix Tshisekedi's second presidential mandate is assured, and he has politically vanquished his domestic opposition after the 20 December elections. But his rhetoric on the campaign trail has...

Judges stand up as Ruto takes them on

Chief Justice Martha Koome has pushed back hard after the President accused the judiciary of chronic corruption

The presidency could lose badly if the sniping between it and the judiciary escalates. In his New Year's address, President William Ruto accused opposition leaders of using the...

What hope for the juntas' promised elections?

As the security threats multiply and international troops are forced out, the military rulers in the Sahel have equivocated about their commitments to restoring civilian rule

The promise of electoral contests to restore constitutional and nominally civilian rule will be a key issue across much of West and West-Central Africa this year, and particularly...

Mahamat Kaka co-opts Succès in pre-election campaign

Focused on consolidating power, the junta leader is bringing rivals into the tent and trying to avoid more entanglements in Sudan

The devastating war in Sudan and awkward relations with France and the United Arab Emirates are casting a long shadow over Chad this year as its military leader...

Biggest economies turn laggards

Smaller countries will grow faster this year but will be held back by a lacklustre outturn in the continent's biggest economies

Forecasts by the World Bank, IMF, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the UN that the continent's economies should grow faster this year should be set against its...

Oromo peace momentum falters

There were high hopes of a resolution to the OLA insurgency, but the will is not yet there on the rebel side and Abiy fears a deal may alienate other regions

The outlook for a settlement between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has taken a hit: fighting has resumed after peace talks ended in acrimony late...

Pointers

Ofori-Atta claims big win

Confirmation on 17 January of a deal between Ghana and its official bilateral creditors (Paris Club and China) to restructure payments owed on US$5.4 billion of debt, is...

Abductions prompt security alert

The reported deaths of Nabeeha Al-Kadriyar, who was kidnapped along with 22 others in the Bwari Area of Abuja, and 13-year-old Folasade Ariyo, who was abducted alongside eleven...

Petrobras invests in oil sector

Following the signature of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on joint business opportunities in the upstream with Shell in March 2023, on 27 December Brazil's state-controlled oil company...

The Cairo price

The European Commission is hoping to unveil a wide-ranging deal to provide investment in a range of Egyptian economic sectors in exchange for continued cooperation on migration management...

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