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Published 19th January 2023

Vol 64 No 2

Sudan

History won't repeat itself

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Pic: Samir Bol/Reuters/Alamy
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Pic: Samir Bol/Reuters/Alamy

Political parties are negotiating a new path to elections while the generals protect their interests and militant oppositionists take to the streets

The bold hopes surrounding fresh talks between Sudanese political parties on 9 January to agree a final deal for a transition to civil rule 'within a few weeks' look overblown.

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Lourenço faces a tough rebuild

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

An emboldened opposition and internal dissent point to hard months ahead for the President

President João Lourenço came out of last August's elections doubly weakened – by the opposition, which made historic gains despite the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola...

Could a cold war turn hot?

Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Kaïs Saïed. Pic: Zoubeir Souissi/Reuters/Alamy
Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Kaïs Saïed. Pic: Zoubeir Souissi/Reuters/Alamy

Chaos on the EU's southern flank could mean trouble as Algeria and Morocco turn up the heat and Tunisians lose patience with their never-ending crisis

High levels of oil and gas revenues meant Algeria ended 2023 with good economic results on paper, as foreign reserves rebuilt to over US$60 billion and enough money...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

As Qin Gang, China's new foreign minister and former ambassador to Washington DC, winds up his tour of Ethiopia, Gabon, Benin, Angola and Egypt, the United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen started a 10-day African sojourn by flying to Dakar on 17 January. Both Beijing and Moscow interpret her trip as a sign that Washington is belatedly waking up to geopolitical rivalries in Africa.

Senegal has launched a campaign for its Just Energy Transition plan, following the lead of South A...

As Qin Gang, China's new foreign minister and former ambassador to Washington DC, winds up his tour of Ethiopia, Gabon, Benin, Angola and Egypt, the United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen started a 10-day African sojourn by flying to Dakar on 17 January. Both Beijing and Moscow interpret her trip as a sign that Washington is belatedly waking up to geopolitical rivalries in Africa.

Senegal has launched a campaign for its Just Energy Transition plan, following the lead of South Africa's $8.5 billion programme financed by the US, Britain and the European Union. Its President Macky Sall, currently chairs the African Union. So the 'loss and damage' fund, to which the US and Europe reluctantly agreed at the UN COP27 climate summit in November, will be on the agenda, as will reform of the World Bank and IMF and US support for a permanent seat for the AU on the G20.

In Zambia, Yellen's visit will coincide with that of the IMF's managing director Kristalina Georgieva. The slow restructuring of the country's US$15bn foreign debt will be raised. In South Africa, Yellen's last stop, talks are to cover last October's warning by the Financial Action Task Force that the country would be greylisted if it didn't boost sanctions against money laundering and terrorist financing. They will also cover South Africa's green energy transition plans as well as the current disastrous state of its power utility, Eskom.

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The colonels and captains settle in

Beset by jihadist insurgents, the juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso are shakier than Guinea – but none offer long-term answers to their countries' problems

The military juntas running Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso – in place since August 2020, September 2021, and January 2022 respectively – are set, according to their own...

Moscow's goals are global not local

President Putin's backing for authoritarian regimes in West and Central Africa bolsters his confrontation with France and the EU

The Kremlin is working hard to diversify its influence in Africa and involve more of the Russian state in it, as far as international sanctions imposed after the...

Grand ambitions, little money

After the summits in Brussels and Washington, their big promises will be tested on debt, trade and investment this year

For many of the delegates who travelled to Washington DC for the United States-African leaders' summit on 13-15 December, the first such gathering in eight years, it was...

Government by chequebook

Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dubaiba will use the central bank to shore up his power base and buy off opponents

Elections look unlikely again this year. After the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) blamed the failure of the December 2021 presidential elections on Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dubaiba's...

Sall manoeuvres for a high-risk third term

The president's camp is preparing for the 2024 elections and the challenge from Sonko and the growing opposition movement

Ousmane Sonko, the charismatic leader of the Pastefs les Patriotes opposition party, is in full campaign mode for the presidential elections due in early 2024 – although President...

Pointers

The succession race starts

There's no date yet for the ruling New Patriotic Party's (NPP) presidential primaries but prospective candidates are preparing for the elections required within 12 months of the next...

Clipping the President's talons

Having broken the government's monopoly in the national assembly, winning 28 of the 109 seats in last Sunday's legislative elections, the Démocrates have established themselves as the principal...

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