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Published 15th December 2022

Vol 63 No 25


Nigeria

It takes more than new banknotes…

Pic: PaulShlykov / stock.adobe.com
Pic: PaulShlykov / stock.adobe.com

Abuja is struggling with slowing growth and spiralling debt demands, and a new plan to replace old banknotes looks set to create further chaos

Ahead of February's election Nigeria's economy is flagging. Usually, governments can rely on help from their supporters for a pre-election boost, but this time it is different. Real growth of Nigeria's oil and gas revenue-dependent economy has been meagre, slowed by the pandemic and corruption in the oil market. That is sinking the naira and driving up interest rates. Now, a new scheme could cause further confusion.

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Grim outlook for the new president

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

Central Bank of Nigeria governor Emefiele insists that his interest rate hikes are controlling inflation but a new president will face greater challenges

The Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy committee (MPC) faces tough choices as the year-on-year inflation rate has reached 21%. Food price inflation is even higher, at 23.7%....

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BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

White House officials have been at pains to brief journalists that United States President Joe Biden will pull out all the stops to show that this week's African leaders' summit is a demonstration of Washington's genuine commitment to the continent after the neglect of the Trump administration.

The three-day summit, the first of its kind in eight years to be hosted by the US, with delegations from nearly 50 African states, will be co-ordin...

White House officials have been at pains to brief journalists that United States President Joe Biden will pull out all the stops to show that this week's African leaders' summit is a demonstration of Washington's genuine commitment to the continent after the neglect of the Trump administration.

The three-day summit, the first of its kind in eight years to be hosted by the US, with delegations from nearly 50 African states, will be co-ordinated by veteran diplomat Johnnie Carson, who served as the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the Obama administration.

Biden's offer is expected to include US support for the AU to become a permanent member of the G20 and have a permanent African seat on the UN Security Council. The significance of those commitments, and of the promise of US generosity towards African trade that will go far beyond the existing tariff and quota-free African Growth and Opportunity Act – currently due to expire in 2025 – comfortably outweighs the $55 billion in investment that the US is expected to announce at the summit.

When it comes to investment and political influence in Africa, the US has steadily fallen behind the EU and China, while Russia and the Gulf states have emerged as new players on defence and diplomacy. Three days of summitry and promises will only go part of the way towards correcting that.

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Hustler fund lacks sparkle

President Ruto’s fund for small businesses is taking shape but critics ask whether sacrificing its ambition will limit its impact

The fanfare at the launch on 30 November of President William Ruto's Hustler Fund for small businesses could not be denied. Far less clear is if it will...


Tentative steps towards peace

The reluctance of some to negotiate, tricky problems between allies, and arm-twisting from the west make for a complex negotiating picture

The fledgling peace process between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front has evolved from a mere cessation of hostilities agreed in Pretoria on 2...


Can Macron's new Sahel strategy work?

Rising hostility to Paris embarrasses regional governments as they seek French help to halt the southward spread of jihadist violence

It must have been with private relief that President Emmanuel Macron greeted England's 3-0 defeat of Senegal in the FIFA World Cup, thus sparing Les Bleus from a...


Lithium scramble offers temptation

As firms from east and west scramble for hugely valuable lithium deposits, mining ministry officials are investigated for alleged bribe-taking

Lithium was the break-out commodity of 2022, with the price of this key ingredient in electric vehicle batteries soaring by 1,000% since 2020 to US$82,000 per tonne in...


Oppositionists prise open parliamentary politics

For the first time in four years, Béninois voters should have a free choice to elect a new legislature in January

The country's constitutional system is starting to work again despite President Patrice Talon's authoritarian instincts. Last month the Constitutional Court ordered the Commission Électorale Nationale Autonome (CENA) to...


President's fate rests with party

After months of horse-trading and under the shadow of another corruption scandal, the ANC will decide this week on who will lead the party and country

The African National Congress's long-awaited 55th elective conference kicks off on 16 December after a week of political turmoil and crippling rolling blackouts. Cyril Ramaphosa will be encouraged...


Museveni seeks seventh heaven

As the President lays the groundwork to stand for a seventh term, the struggling economy may deny him the funds for vote-winning projects

Petitions for President Yoweri Museveni to stand as president in 2026 – his seventh election since seizing power in 1986 – are flooding in from all points of...



Pointers

Push on pushbacks

Italy's new right-wing government is at the centre of a row over illegal pushbacks of boats carrying asylum-seekers and economic migrants that could engulf the wider European Union.


Bang go the reforms

The credibility of the regime's bid for wider legitimacy is in tatters after it emerged on 5 December that a military court had sentenced 262 of those detained...