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Published 21st July 2022

Vol 63 No 15


Ghana

Akufo-Addo faces the costs of an IMF deal

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

The government's U-turn on a bailout boosts the opposition in the short term but raises bigger questions about the economy's structure

On 13 July, after six days of talks with the government, the International Monetary Fund referred to Ghana's 'challenging economic and social situation' – code for the multiplicity of political problems and spending battles to come if negotiations on a bailout are to lead anywhere.

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Ofori-Atta's team plans more cuts

Pic: Ahmed / stock.adobe.com

Accra's return to the IMF has been praised by the ratings agencies and could trigger cheaper loans – but at the cost of wide-ranging budget reviews

The latest official budget data, for the first quarter, suggests Ghana was already overshooting this year's budget deficit targets before a second quarter when the full impact of...


Peter Obi shakes up the political class

The depth of the country's crises is forcing voters to rethink their choices – to the great benefit of the former governor of Anambra state

Millionaire bankers make improbable revolutionaries, especially in Nigeria. But Peter Obi, the geeky former governor of Anambra state, is upending the political establishment's complacency about next year's presidential...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Two G20 meetings have broken up this year without agreeing a final communiqué – first in Washington in April and then in Bali, Indonesia, this month – raising fresh doubts about the organisation's value. Yet African Union officials are pushing to join the G20, arguing that being shut out of the grouping has cut Africa's influence over policy and measures to address the effects of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine on energy and food prices.

The G77 of developing countries...

Two G20 meetings have broken up this year without agreeing a final communiqué – first in Washington in April and then in Bali, Indonesia, this month – raising fresh doubts about the organisation's value. Yet African Union officials are pushing to join the G20, arguing that being shut out of the grouping has cut Africa's influence over policy and measures to address the effects of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine on energy and food prices.

The G77 of developing countries has complained that international tax policy has been dictated by the 30 wealthy states in the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. That could now change. Indonesia's President Joko Widodo has indicated that he will use his government's hosting of the G20 summit in November to argue for the AU to be a member of the bloc. South Africa is currently the only African member of the group.

There is logic to the request. AU officials point to the European Union, whose two main leaders, the Presidents of the European Commission and European Council, both attend G20 summits, as the precedent it should follow. Finance ministers from Egypt, Senegal and Ghana have sent a letter to the G20 formally requesting more African engagement, as well as revival of the debt suspension initiative introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic, and a new issuance of special drawing rights by the IMF to cover the cost of increased fuel and grain prices.

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Heat of war shifts to the centre

Tensions may be easing between Addis and Tigray, but in Oromia the bitterness of ethno-nationalist conflict remains strong

The intensity of violence between Oromo and Amhara communities is militating against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's attempts to co-opt moderates on both sides, as fresh atrocities multiply and...


Dos Santos haunts Lourenço's campaign

The death of the former President has triggered a wave of nostalgia and dissatisfaction that threatens the electoral prospects of his successor

The legal and reputational battle after the news on 8 July that President José Eduardo dos Santos had died in Barcelona following a stroke is damaging the ruling...


Parties divided on sharing power

The junta's declaration of a new way to rule the country leaves the opposition unable to decide on what to do. But Burhan is also out of options

Ever since Gen Abdel Fattah al Burhan declared on television that the army and civilians would have separate responsibilities in running the country on 4 July, Sudanese have...


Compaoré's return baffles nation

The junta invited the ousted dictator back to the capital, defying court verdicts and enraging the public. But some of the elite still have time for him

Looking frail and disoriented, Blaise Compaoré returned to Ouagadougou on 7 July for the first time since a popular revolt eight years ago swept him out of power...


Goïta plays to his nationalist gallery

The regime in Bamako raised hopes by promising elections, but then stoked a new crisis with the UN peacekeeping force

Hardly had it been announced that West African leaders were lifting sanctions against Mali's military regime, when a new crisis flared, as the authorities arrested 49 Ivorian soldiers...


Sofa cash saga levels the ethical scores

The President looks beleaguered as his rivals claim the Farmgate affair makes him little better than the corrupt officials he wants to purge

President Cyril Ramaphosa vigorously defended his probity in a speech to the South African Communist Party (SACP) on 15 July, insisting he would not be railroaded or intimidated,...



Pointers

Washington raises its trade offer

The confirmation by the United States Senate that Hewlett Packard chief executive Margaret Whitman will take over as Washington's Ambassador to Kenya, as the US Commerce department announced...