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Published 12th May 2022

Vol 63 No 10


Sudan

Burhan lets the Islamists back in

Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Pic: Mohamed Khidir/Xinhua/Alamy
Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Pic: Mohamed Khidir/Xinhua/Alamy

Shorn of political alternatives and determined to remain in power, the junta is falling back on Islamists of all stripes to shore up the regime

Six months after the Sudanese military seized power again, a new reality is taking shape for the junta. Whether it was always part of the military's aims, or simply a consequence of events, Islamists – and not just members of the formerly ruling National Congress Party (NCP) – are being restored to their privileges and taking important government jobs.

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Unloved Hemeti under pressure

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti'. Pic: Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah / REUTERS / Alamy
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti'. Pic: Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah / REUTERS / Alamy

The junta's second-in-command's parallel armed forces and business interests give him muscle but win him few friends

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti', number two in Sudan's ruling Sovereign Council, is under pressure from all sides, as his relations deteriorate with the military, increasingly powerful Islamists...


Farmajo faces the ultimate test

Pic: @M_Farmaajo
Pic: @M_Farmaajo

Parliament looks like picking a new president on 15 May because the incumbent has alienated far too many MPs

Looked at from the perspective of last April, the latest political developments seem improbable, even absurd. A year ago Mogadishu was on a war footing and President Mohamed...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

A badly timed Eurobond issuance, interest rates chasing roaring fuel and food inflation and a treasured national carrier split in two then sold for three US dollars. Those are the alarming developments in three of Africa's most important economies.

Kenya's latest trip to the Eurobond market to raise another $1 billion will concern those already nervous about the country's rising debt burden. Yields on 10-year paper have almost doubled since January to 11.22%, comfortably above the 7% ...

A badly timed Eurobond issuance, interest rates chasing roaring fuel and food inflation and a treasured national carrier split in two then sold for three US dollars. Those are the alarming developments in three of Africa's most important economies.

Kenya's latest trip to the Eurobond market to raise another $1 billion will concern those already nervous about the country's rising debt burden. Yields on 10-year paper have almost doubled since January to 11.22%, comfortably above the 7% benchmark of what can be serviced sustainably. Three months out from an election that some fear could trigger clashes and instability, and with a yawning 8% budget deficit to finance, this is a particularly expensive time to issue debt.

And Ghana's economy is being battered by 26% inflation, driven by rising food prices, underscoring damage done by disrupted supply chains, worsened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The combination faced by Kenya and Ghana of rocketing food and fuel prices along with mounting debt service costs is mirrored across the region.

The terms of the sale of a 51% stake in South African Airways, for a mere $3 to the Takatso Consortium last year points to unprecedented financial pressures. The loss-making national airline may be off the Treasury's books, but the deal requires South Africa's state to provide continued financial support if needed in the future.

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Kenya sponsors risky anti-militia plan

Nairobi has assembled regional states to fight Congolese armed groups, but they include the very countries the groups depend on for aid

An agreement by regional governments to form a joint military force to deploy against armed groups in Congo-Kinshasa looks like a diplomatic masterstroke by Kenya, which is coordinating...


Bamako's junta forces hard choices

With French troops pulling out, and the UN mission at risk, African leaders mull how to fill the security vacuum

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has presented West African governments with hard military choices, by proposing the African Union establish a new force that could replace the United Nations'...


SPECIAL REPORT: How Vincent Bolloré came to dominate business in Togo – using money, media and merchandise

Africa Confidential presents a Special Report on the Breton tycoon’s growing influence in Africa. Far from quitting the continent, Vincent Bolloré’s business and political interests in Africa are deepening – even as he faces trial in Paris for grand corruption in league with two West African leaders. By Andrew Weir and Nicolas Vescovacci

Billionaire Vincent Bolloré, who has built up monopoly control over some of the biggest container terminals in Africa, is heading back to the French courts with two of...

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Zondo hands ANC a time-bomb

The final report of the State Capture Commission is set to shake up the ruling party and present Ramaphosa with his toughest choices yet

The first four reports of the epic State Capture Commission headed by Chief Justice Raymond Zondo are a clear indication that the ruling African National Congress is in...


Ouattara keeps options open for his successor

The octogenarian President has lined up a beauty parade of contenders – even as his supporters say he may stand again in 2025

Succession gossip – rarely quiet for long in Abidjan – is simmering after President Alassane Ouattara appointed a new deputy and reshuffled the cabinet and the top ranks...


Consensus candidate plan upsets the frontrunners

Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu – political godfathers turned contenders – may lose out in primaries as alliances shift

The next four weeks will be critical as over 30 contenders compete to become the country's next president – the parties have until 3 June to submit all...



Pointers

Mind the gap

Devolution was supposed to help bridge the yawning gap between Kenya's rich and poor counties by driving fairer allocation of resources. In reality, it is at best slowing...


Hichilema's team steps on the gas

After successful talks in Washington DC last month, Zambia's treasury officials hope to finalise a US$1.4 billion Extended Credit facility with the International Monetary Fund by the end...