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Published 31st March 2022

Vol 63 No 7

Zimbabwe

The Change campaign changes hands

Epworth, March 2022 Pic: @nelsonchamisa
Epworth, March 2022 Pic: @nelsonchamisa

A spate of by-elections saw the demise of Mwonzora’s state-sponsored opposition and the arrival of Chamisa's bright yellow party

Two conclusions emerge from the results of the by-elections for 28 parliamentary seats and 122 council seats on 26 March: that the ruling party's strategy of dividing the opposition has run aground and President Emmerson Mnangagwa's authority over the party will diminish further because its poor electoral showing.

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Sanctioned mogul adds steel to portfolio

Pic: poco_bw / stock.adobe.com
Pic: poco_bw / stock.adobe.com

Zimbabwean business mogul Kudakwashe Tagwirei continues building his empire, despite US sanctions and fresh revelations

Pfimbi means storage in Shona, but it also implies a secret place known by you alone, where you stash something for safekeeping. It's an apt name for a...

Economic swings and roundabouts

Cyril Ramaphosa delivering the keynote address at the Fourth South African Investment Conference, 24 March 2022. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Cyril Ramaphosa delivering the keynote address at the Fourth South African Investment Conference, 24 March 2022. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Russia's war is stoking a commodity boom but tax windfalls cannot offset the Ramaphosa government's economic and political woes

At the fourth annual international investment conference in Johannesburg on 24 March, South Africa hauled in another 332 billion rand (US$22.7bn) for new projects which, added to previous...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

The axis of authoritarians, fuelled by geopolitical tensions, was on parade in Cairo on 30 March when Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el Sisi received Sudan's military leader General Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Aside from a mutual distrust of democracy, these neighbours have other causes in common. They may calculate that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine could relieve the pressure on other authoritarian states. Others have sensed a note of desperation in western leaders' entreaties to oil and gas...

The axis of authoritarians, fuelled by geopolitical tensions, was on parade in Cairo on 30 March when Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el Sisi received Sudan's military leader General Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Aside from a mutual distrust of democracy, these neighbours have other causes in common. They may calculate that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine could relieve the pressure on other authoritarian states. Others have sensed a note of desperation in western leaders' entreaties to oil and gas producers Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

It's all in the cause of weaning Europe off its dependence on Russia. Egypt and Sudan don't have enough oil and gas to make much difference on that score but they are a critical part of regional security arrangements. Egypt, which gets US$1.3 billion of military aid, voted to deplore Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the UN. Sudan's military junta, which has had tens of billions of debt relief and an aid programme frozen, abstained. In both cases there was a transactional logic.

Along with navigating the rivalries between Washington, Paris, Moscow and Beijing, these authoritarian regimes have pressing concerns: managing the rocketing price of bread and fuel. And they may look along the North African littoral with some concern as Tunisia, the birthplace of the North African uprisings in 2011, heads for a new political cataclysm, fuelled again by rising prices.

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Continental ties tested in a zero-sum game

Western diplomats in Africa are grappling with how to respond to the return of geopolitics after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The rumbling crisis over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has shown diplomats just how far Europe's relations with African states have deteriorated and how quickly both continents have snapped...

Sectarian killings surge as French troops leave

Civilians are targeted by national soldiers, Islamists and Russian mercenaries but Bamako's military rulers are determined to end the western security presence

The Commanders of Opération Barkhane and the European Special Forces' Takuba have begun to plan for their withdrawal from Mali. Earlier this month, Barkhane's French commander, General Laurent...

Trade curbs and price spikes deepen food crisis

Big grain producers are imposing export controls and farmers face rocketing fertiliser costs

Without concerted international action about 400 million people, many in Africa, will face chronic food shortages due to disruptions after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, according to the latest...

Top-level collusion suspected in atrocity

The latest Al Shabaab attacks, which may have had some security backing, aimed to delay the polls again

On 23 March Al Shabaab suicide bombers struck hard in the capital and Beled Weyne, focusing on the heavily-fortified Mogadishu airport complex which houses UN offices and foreign...

Back to the IMF…again

Egypt is looking for a bailout for the third time since 2016, as the Ukraine war hits the economy and foreign portfolio investors head for the exit

The unfolding economic damage from Russia's war on Ukraine has again exposed Egypt's vulnerability to rising food and oil prices and the fickle money markets. On 23 March,...

Goïta's junta cracks down mercilessly

The army is accused of running a ruthless counter-insurgency campaign while authorities clamp down on anyone reporting abuses

Colonel Assimi Goïta's military regime is responding to mounting allegations of human rights violations by the national army and Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group by lashing out...

Ramaphosa weighs the cost of Moscow's war

Backed by Russia during the liberation struggle, the African National Congress struggles to find a 'neutral' stance on the Ukraine war

On the scale of economic gains and losses, a quick end to the Russian war on Ukraine would be in South Africa's, and much of Africa's best interest....

Pointers

Al Qaida bomb compensation

A new front has opened in the long-running battle for compensation for the non-American victims of the 1998 bombings of the United States embassies in Kenya and Tanzania....

Moscow loses arms advantage

Russia stands to lose its position of supplying nearly half of Africa's arms following the sweeping sanctions imposed in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. Some of...

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