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Published 3rd March 2022

Vol 63 No 5

Alliances come under heavy fire

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

Governments across Africa are reviewing ties with Moscow as the international crisis over its Ukraine invasion deepens

Africa is not directly concerned by the Russia-Ukraine war, yet the African Union and a few member states have made their views known loudly, in contrast with their sotto voce response to conflicts in Ethiopia, South Sudan or Congo-Kinshasa.

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How Putin revived Moscow's reach

Group photo, Russia-Africa Summit, Sochi, Russia, October 2019. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Group photo, Russia-Africa Summit, Sochi, Russia, October 2019. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Gas pipelines, mining deals and military business powered post-Cold War relations but now they are at a turning point again

President Vladimir Putin's first visit to Africa in 2006 launched Moscow's renewed push for economic and security ties with the continent. Its success was celebrated at the October...

Moscow invasion strains bilateral ties

Cyril Ramaphosa and Naledi Pandor participate in virtual 12th BRICS summit. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Cyril Ramaphosa and Naledi Pandor participate in virtual 12th BRICS summit. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Internal rivalries in the ruling ANC complicate the government’s response to war in Ukraine

Russia's full-blown war against Ukraine has opened a crack in the BRICS alliance – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – the political and economic grouping that...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

The biggest war in Europe for seven decades is destroying lives and weakening economies with its effects rippling well beyond the continent. An unexpected effect is the consensus among European states to back consequential sanctions against Russia, just as international support for such measures was waning. Allied to the stronger backing for sanctions, states are more determined to scrutinise politicians and their business allies far more closely.

Britain has been widely characterised...

The biggest war in Europe for seven decades is destroying lives and weakening economies with its effects rippling well beyond the continent. An unexpected effect is the consensus among European states to back consequential sanctions against Russia, just as international support for such measures was waning. Allied to the stronger backing for sanctions, states are more determined to scrutinise politicians and their business allies far more closely.

Britain has been widely characterised as a laundromat for the proceeds from corrupt business. Now it is introducing a Register of Overseas Entities that will require anonymous foreign owners of British property to reveal their real identities, and will apply retrospectively to property bought up to 20 years ago. That widens the scope of Unexplained Wealth Orders, making sanctions easier to impose.

The main targets are Russian oligarchs but it will have implications for multinational businesses operating in Africa and their political allies. It will make it harder to launder cash into property, assets and businesses in the City of London. As other major jurisdictions in Europe and North America pass their own laws, that will pressure tax havens to increase transparency or face sanctions.

 It's a new era for financial sanctions and they will not be restricted to Russia.

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Schisms in the junta are widening

General Burhan's alliance with a powerful militia and rebels is unravelling as he faces coup plots and street protests

After seizing total power, the ruling generals are facing an increasingly determined and resourceful civilian opposition and are struggling to keep rival armed factions on-side as the country's...

Terrorisme sans frontières

The relocation of European troops from Mali to Niger holds political risks for President Bazoum but may avert a wider security breakdown

Geography helps explain why President Mohamed Bazoum overcame his initial reluctance to host European and French troops after they were expelled from Mali this month. Bazoum understood how...

Formidable first lady flexes her muscles

Her critics in the ruling party accuse Fatima Bio of plotting to push out Vice-President Jalloh. That could cost votes in next year's elections

To some, First Lady Fatima Bio is a strong, astute politician in her own right, but to others a bully who may have overstepped her bounds in the...

Polls stall as Al Shabaab attacks surge

The Islamist militia's offensive has increased in tempo but the national army has been holding its own as it looks as though the US will become more involved

Al Shabaab launched more attacks in January and February than it had during all of last year. Most serious was its coordinated attack on 18 February in several...

Prime minister Abiy tests diplomatic path

As Addis Ababa counts the costs of the war, parliament lifts the state of emergency then sets up a National Dialogue Commission

Whatever their relation to reality, the messages from the prime minister's office are clear: the war is largely over, the government is open to negotiations and is pushing...

Bazoum prepares to fight on two fronts

The President is welcoming European troops expelled from Mali while using development projects to counter anti-French sentiment

Among the leaders in the Sahel, President Mohamed Bazoum faces the widest array of opponents from local activists hostile to France's presence to the jihadist insurgents trying to...

Power struggle intensifies as Thabane goes on trial

Prime Minister Majoro faces challenges from rivals in ruling party ahead of national elections in September

Allies of former leader Thomas Thabane in the ruling All Basotho Convention (ABC) party are trying to take over the government in Maseru by organising a no-confidence vote...

Pointers

In debt to my colleague

The prosecution in the trial of 19 people accused of profiting from the $2 billion in hidden loans closed on 18 February with testimony from its most illustrious...

The big release

The release of 23 men detained on terrorism charges suggests a shift in the country's counter-terrorism strategy.

Ruto goes West

A ten-day tour of the United States and Britain at the beginning of March marks Deputy President William Ruto's most important trip yet ahead of August's presidential elections....

Son, like Father

One of the larger Africa–focused lobbying outfits, with offices in Abidjan, Kinshasa and Mauritius, is the Paris–based 35° Nord. It is targeting the European Union's focus on its...

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