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Published 21st October 2021

Vol 62 No 21

Ethiopia

Abiy's war party digs in

Abiy Ahmed. Pic: Alexandros Michailidis/Alamy
Abiy Ahmed. Pic: Alexandros Michailidis/Alamy

Inaugurated in front of regional leaders, the Prime Minster has shuffled his cabinet and launched a massive new offensive in Tigray

Signs decorated with flowers and reading 'A New Beginning' in readiness for Abiy Ahmed's grand inauguration in Addis Ababa on 4 October held little reality even for his most determined supporters.

Into the hell of war, again

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021

Reports from the field say the Tigray forces have held off the first wave of the new federal offensive and may be gaining ground

In the run-up to the first year's anniversary of the war in Tigray, no clear victor has emerged and there is a high risk that the conflict, devastating...

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A splintered sect

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021

The death of a notorious jihad leader has shifted the balance of power among terrorist groups in the region

An unrelenting campaign of terror by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) continues to gather steam as it positions itself to succeed Boko Haram, from which it splintered,...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

The World Meteorological Association's latest report evokes a troubling future. It forecasts that living conditions could become unsustainable in the next decade for over 100 million people in Africa, hit by drought, floods and extreme heat. Africa would need to spend US$30-50 billion a year, about 3-5% of continental GDP, just to prevent the worst consequences of the current rate of global warming, it adds.

Questions of equity are set to dominate the COP26 climate change summit in Gl...

The World Meteorological Association's latest report evokes a troubling future. It forecasts that living conditions could become unsustainable in the next decade for over 100 million people in Africa, hit by drought, floods and extreme heat. Africa would need to spend US$30-50 billion a year, about 3-5% of continental GDP, just to prevent the worst consequences of the current rate of global warming, it adds.

Questions of equity are set to dominate the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow opening on 31 October. African officials say their governments have been sidelined on policy issues such as net zero carbon targets, carbon taxes, and equitable energy transitions. Africa accounts for less than 4% of greenhouse gas emissions and less than half the continent has access to a reliable electric power supply. Its governments, led by oil and gas-producing Nigeria, are protesting against Western boycotts on finance for hydrocarbon projects. A report from Reuters that European officials are urging the World Bank to ban all fossil fuel investments will prompt more criticism of biased rules and hypocrisy over energy.

Gabon's Tanguy Gahouma, who chairs Africa's Group of Negotiators at COP26, wants a new system to track funding from rich nations that are failing to pay their share of the UN-agreed $100 billion a year fund to help developing economies adapt to climate change.

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Apathy and infighting hit ANC

An ailing economy, internal rivalries and Covid restrictions could see the ANC's vote fall below 50% at the municipal elections

For President Cyril Ramaphosa, the local elections on 1 November will be a referendum on his reforms and a sign of his party support a year before he...

Raila beats Ruto as the oligarchs' favourite

Central Province – President Kenyatta's home area – is now the swing region ahead of next year's elections

In ever greater numbers, presidential contenders are trooping to Central Kenya in search of grassroots supporters as well as endorsements from the Mount Kenya oligarchs.

Mabuza stirs a hornets' nest

The Deputy President’s plans for another term highlight tensions in the ANC as factions jockey for position

The country's rarely seen Deputy President, David Mabuza, was sharply reprimanded by the governing African National Congress when he casually threw his hat into the ring for re-election...

Cover-up in UN murders

Protests have thwarted the government’s efforts to quash interest in the 2017 murder of UN experts

Prominent Congolese journalist Sosthène Kambidi was conditionally freed on 12 October after three weeks in custody, with earlier charges from a military prosecutor of conspiracy, rebellion and association...

Eastern strongman squares up for the polls

As the country takes faltering steps towards elections set for December, only General Haftar has so far entered the ring

Having failed to become master of his country by the bullet with the collapse last year of his 14-month offensive against Tripoli, eastern-based General Khalifa Haftar has opted...

Elysée tries to reset history

Facing a tough election next year, President Macron is fighting off attacks from the far right and recasting Africa policy

Despite hosting a new-style dialogue with activists and artists and attending a commemoration in Paris for a long hushed-up 1961 massacre of Algerian demonstrators, Emmanuel Macron's overhauling of...

Beijing uses its economic leverage

As geopolitical divides get sharper, China is accused of using debts owed by African states to compel support for its diplomatic and security goals

African diplomats are becoming exasperated by China's demands for diplomatic support on every issue from Covid-19's origins to the human rights of the Uighurs in Xinjiang province, whether...

The opposition stays on hold

Appointing a technocrat prime minister has bought President Saïed more time as his approval ratings start to fall

It has become the battle of the demonstrations. So far President Kaïs Saïed, who has suspended the constitution indefinitely, is winning but scepticism about his plans is growing.

Pointers

More on Air Blair

Tony Blair's secretive lightning tour of Africa in September and October included meetings with five presidents in four days, Africa Confidential has now been able to confirm, mostly...

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