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Published 15th April 2021

Vol 62 No 8


Eritrea

Addis and Asmara exchange vows

Issayas Afewerki and Abiy Ahmed, July 2018. Pic: Tiksa Negeri / Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo
Issayas Afewerki and Abiy Ahmed, July 2018. Pic: Tiksa Negeri / Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo

Ethiopia and Eritrea may consider a federation as the conflict in Tigray becomes part of a wider reordering of regional geopolitics

Efforts to float a trial balloon for greater closeness between Eritrea and Ethiopia by Ambassador Dina Mufti at his weekly press conference in Addis Ababa at the end of last month quickly crash-landed.

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Eritrea entrenches in Tigray

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021

Issayas’s forces were the spearhead of Addis Ababa’s ousting of the Tigray government. They are there for the long haul

As the fog around the conflict in Tigray slowly begins to lift, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reliance on the armed forces of his Eritrean counterpart Issayas Afewerki is...

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States rethink security

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021

No reaction from Abuja as state governors in the south-east, like their south-west counterparts, launch a regional security organisation

After governors of the south-eastern states met in the city of Owerri on 11 April to mull a response to a wave of deadly attacks against farmers and...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Foreign aid from governments rose to an all-time high of €161.2 billion (US$192.1bn) in 2020, a 3.5% real terms increase, according to data published this week by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Aid to Africa as a whole increased by 4.1%, boosted by extra money for North Africa. In the rest of Africa, foreign aid fell by 1% to €31 billion. That may be explained by the deep cuts to Britain's and Italy's aid budgets, which will not be reversed any time soon...

Foreign aid from governments rose to an all-time high of €161.2 billion (US$192.1bn) in 2020, a 3.5% real terms increase, according to data published this week by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Aid to Africa as a whole increased by 4.1%, boosted by extra money for North Africa. In the rest of Africa, foreign aid fell by 1% to €31 billion. That may be explained by the deep cuts to Britain's and Italy's aid budgets, which will not be reversed any time soon. On the ground, these cuts will hold back much-needed funds for health care after a year in which the demands of the pandemic have sidelined other social investment.

Against the cost of the pandemic, the latest OECD data reminds us how little, in relative terms, is going into aid budgets. OECD Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría said total aid amounts to about 1% of what countries have spent to stimulate their economies over the past year. It also warns us that calls by Britain's former prime minister Gordon Brown for the Group of 7 economies, when it meets in mid-June, to find the $30bn needed to finance a global vaccination scheme may fall on deaf ears.

Brown, who played a key role in the response to the 2007-08 global financial crisis, argues it is a matter of national self-interest not charity: a $30bn investment in universal vaccinations this year would add $500bn to global income by 2025.

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Much to be modest about

The economy is in slightly better shape than feared months ago but faces a toxic combination of unemployment and inflation

President Muhammadu Buhari and Nigeria's economy policymakers will certainly welcome the modest improvement in the country's economic outlook. According to the Yemi Kale-led National Bureau of Statistics (NBS),...


Human rights, export rights

As iron ore prices rocket, mining companies in eastern Guinea face up to the fallout from a massacre, and battle over export licences

Mick 'the miner' Davis, one of the latest players to enter the scramble for Guinea's iron ore riches, is facing opposition from both local communities and the mining...


Unholy alliances

None of the presidential contenders can explain how they could form a majority at next year’s elections

Kenya's next president will be Raila Odinga, William Ruto or 'S'. The latter stands for 'the system'. This informs a growing assumption that with neither Odinga nor Ruto...


The state capturers fight back

Corrupt officials and business allies are running multi-billion dollar rackets in state companies, derailing attempts at reform

The beneficiaries of what could be over 100 billion rand (US$6.8bn) of 'irregular spending' in the country's rickety state-owned companies over the past three years are pushing back...



Pointers

Talons out for the opposition

After excluding all credible opposition candidates, President Patrice Talon won another five years in office with 86% of the vote, according to provisional results released as Africa Confidential...


Chronicle of an election foretold

Chad's electoral commission has until 25 April to pronounce on the results of Sunday's presidential polls, but few are holding their breath. 'I know in advance that I...


Access denied

More than a million people have been driven from their homes by the insurgency of Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara...