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Published 3rd December 2020

Vol 61 No 24

Ethiopia

Citadel falls but the war goes on

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020

Tigray leaders vow guerrilla war against the Federal government as they withdraw to the hills

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have declared success for his 'law and order operation' with the fall of Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, on 28 November, but it is far from clear that the fighting is over. There have been thousands of casualties on both sides and among the Eritrean troops committed to the conflict by President Issayas Afewerki, who shares Abiy's aim of destroying the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Bombing raids and artillery have caused widespread civilian casualties and over 40,000 refugees have fled into Sudan from western Tigray. The Ethiopian army has closed the border to try to prevent more of them crossing.

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War resets the region

African Union HQ. Pic: Hiroo Yamagata (CC BY-SA 2.0)
African Union HQ. Pic: Hiroo Yamagata (CC BY-SA 2.0)

The Federal government’s war with Tigray upsets geopolitics throughout the Horn, and puts Eritrea centre-stage

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's refusal to consider a ceasefire or even mediation continues to attract widespread condemnation. His unflinching stance was underlined when he met an African Union...

Akufo-Addo keeps his lead

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020

The President is more popular than the governing NPP, which could still lose its majority in parliament

With jobs and education topping the list of voter concerns the incumbent, Nana Addo Akufo-Addo, goes into the presidential elections on 7 December with a clear margin over...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

For a government so desperate to boost foreign currency reserves, Zimbabwe's gold industry should be a cash cow, especially with spot prices up to around US$2,000 an ounce, boosted by the uncertainty of Covid-19.

Official gold exports fell 23% to less than $700 million, according to the Reserve Bank. But an estimated $1.5 billion of gold is smuggled out every year, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group. The politically charged case of Henrietta Rushawaya, the sus...

For a government so desperate to boost foreign currency reserves, Zimbabwe's gold industry should be a cash cow, especially with spot prices up to around US$2,000 an ounce, boosted by the uncertainty of Covid-19.

Official gold exports fell 23% to less than $700 million, according to the Reserve Bank. But an estimated $1.5 billion of gold is smuggled out every year, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group. The politically charged case of Henrietta Rushawaya, the suspended President of the Zimbabwe Miners' Federation, arrested for gold smuggling at Harare airport is slowly making its way through the courts. She has denied all charges and says she is in business with President Emmerson Mnangagwa's family.

Miners complain that the country's centralised gold-buying scheme underpays them by forcing them to accept 30% of the payment in local currency, at an exchange rate well below the free market. The ICG report agrees, contending that the law 'encourages smuggling and erodes industrial mining profits, leading companies to close mines.' Payments to small-scale miners are considerably lower than the spot price of gold.

'Idle industrial mines become targets for intrusion by artisanal miners,' the ICG found. The result has been a surge in attacks by politically connected gangs. Such attacks and dangerous working conditions in the artisanal mines have killed dozens of miners in recent weeks.

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Protest, what protest?

Official denials over the Lekki shootings fail to stand up against the mounting evidence, while activists are targeted in a clampdown

Nigerian government officials continue to downplay the army shootings at youth-led protests against the rogue Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) police unit in October, and are doubling down on...

Museveni falls back on force

The President seems to have run out of subtle tactics for dealing with Bobi Wine’s electoral threat and is resorting to brute force

The dozens of killings by security forces in recent opposition protests indicate the Ugandan authorities intend to rely on brutal repression to cow the population, intimidate voters, and...

Echoes of the dark days

The president's re-election has revived some of the deadly rivalries of the civil war era. His opponents say that his gestures towards reconciliation lack conviction

It was only hours after the Constitutional Court confirmed President Alassane Ouattara's overwhelming win at the 31 October presidential elections on 9 November that the victor extended an...

Not so Roch solid

President Kaboré has secured another term but many doubt the security forces’ ability to contain the jihadist insurgents

On 26 November, shouts of 'Un coup, KO!', started ringing around the capital, Ouagadougou. The Commission électorale nationale indépendante (CENI), led by former journalist Newton Ahmed Barry, had...

The Hague’s unexpected guest

What lies behind the arrival of Paul Gicheru at the ICC after years defying an arrest warrant for alleged witness-tampering?

Weeks after Kenyan lawyer Paul Gicheru handed himself in to the International Criminal Court to face witness-tampering charges, the speed with which he has been processed through the...

Economy running on fumes

Tumbling oil revenues have severely dented government finances, as debts mount and donors baulk at picking up the bill

South Sudan's economy is dead on its feet. Falling oil prices have squeezed government revenues, sending hard currency reserves tumbling and inflation soaring. Political stability may now rest...

An uncivil union

The EU and the AU are pressing ahead with plans for a 'strategic partnership' but the rhetoric masks serious disagreements

Closer agreement on development assistance and its goals between the European Union and Africa was one of the first foreign policy initiatives to come out of President Ursula...

Tshisekedi’s moment of truth

The President faces a fork in the road, after national consultations aimed at breaking a tense impasse with his predecessor fizzle out

President Félix Tshisekedi faces an expectant nation. He has split up the coalition with former President Joseph Kabila's Front Commun pour le Congo (FCC) and finished a month...

Creditors fume as the beat goes on

After the default, the bondholders and Chinese creditors are jostling for priority but secrecy and local politics are blocking a credible solution

National politics and geopolitics are set to scupper any attempts to resolve the crisis over Zambia's more than US$12 billion foreign debt. There is little sign that President...

Pointers

Long-distance leader

São Tomé's government-controlled Constitutional Court has denied recognition of veteran politician Patrice Trovoada's unopposed election in absentia as leader of the opposition Acção Democrática Independente .

SWAPO swept away

The electorate dealt a stunning blow to the ruling SWAPO Party in the 25 November municipal elections, costing it its majority in four of the country's 14 regions....

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