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Published 8th October 2020

Vol 61 No 20


Ouattara leads in a perilous poll

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020

The president stands alone against the opposition front, but he is still favourite to win the elections at the end of the month

United in condemnation of Alassane Ouattara's bid for a third term, but failing to present a coherent alternative, the Ivorian opposition has all but written off its chances of preventing a first-round presidential victory on 31 October. At the same time, the opposition front is demanding postponement of the elections, preparing the ground for mass protest at the likely result.

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Colonels concede – but not much

Bamako, 25 September 2020, Bah N'Daw is sworn in as Mali's transitional president. Pic: Habib Kouyate/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images
Bamako, 25 September 2020, Bah N'Daw is sworn in as Mali's transitional president. Pic: Habib Kouyate/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images

While many in the discredited political class plot a return to centre stage, the military has retained the upper hand after ousting President Keïta

Delegates from West Africa and beyond have been flying in and out of Bamako for weeks to impress their priorities and concerns upon the junta (the Comité national...


How to make oil pay

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020

After 20 years of lobbying, a bill to reform the country’s energy industry is being pushed through the National Assembly – with a good chance of success

There has been consensus in the country on two things since the return to civil rule in 1999: the management of oil and gas, which dominates the export...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The peace accord between Sudan's transitional government and three armed groups was a serious step forward from the human and economic damage wrought by decades of conflict. Without ending the myriad civil conflicts, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has little hope of relaunching the devastated economy and devolving power to the regions. A settlement with the armed groups, which are due to join the national armed forces, should strengthen Hamdok's hand.

Although two of the main armed gro...

The peace accord between Sudan's transitional government and three armed groups was a serious step forward from the human and economic damage wrought by decades of conflict. Without ending the myriad civil conflicts, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has little hope of relaunching the devastated economy and devolving power to the regions. A settlement with the armed groups, which are due to join the national armed forces, should strengthen Hamdok's hand.

Although two of the main armed groups stayed away, the signing ceremony in Juba on 3 October attracted a galaxy of regional notables, including the Presidents of Ethiopia and Chad, Sahle-Work Zewde and Idris Déby Itno, and the prime ministers of Egypt and Uganda, Mostafa Madbouly and Ruhakana Rugunda, joined by South Sudan's mediator Tut Gatluak and the United States envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, Donald Booth.

Negotiations with the two groups holding out – Abdel Wahid al Nur's Sudan Liberation Movement and Abdelaziz Adam el Hilu's Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North – are to resume this month.

The accord aims to integrate all the armed groups into the national armed forces, which are themselves divided between the army, the Rapid Support Forces militia and the military wing of the security services.  The deal offers greater economic and political rights to people in all Sudan's regions and access to a US$750 million fund for development in the west and the south.

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Private capital, green shoots

A combination of worsening power cuts and investigations into grand corruption in the state utility and its suppliers has forced a policy shift

The government is finally backing a plan that will open the state power utility Eskom to private investors, putting the energy sector at the core of the country's...


Paths out of the pandemic

Dire predictions of the toll in Africa from Covid-19 were overblown but disinformation is threatening public health initiatives

Back in March, it was the lull before the storm, with predictions of three million deaths from Covid-19 in Africa. Thankfully, the storm never came. Today, it is...


This time, it's personal

A spate of arrests of officials on corruption charges is leading to the door of Ace Magashule, Secretary-General of the ruling party

Within weeks Cyril Ramaphosa will face his toughest battle as President as he tests his authority against the second-most-powerful politician in the country, African National Congress (ANC) Secretary-General...


Which way is Tebboune facing?

A month ahead of a constitutional referendum and parliamentary elections, the country is deeply divided over the government’s claims of reform

Supporters of President Abdelmajid Tebboune, backed by army Chief of Staff Major General Saïd Chengriha, have presided over the crushing of the oligarch culture that thrived under...


Tigray takes on the centre

The northern province’s ruling council lays down the gauntlet with its refusal to recognise the Addis Ababa government

After running an election for Tigray's State Council in defiance of federal authority last month, which the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) won by a landslide, the party's...



Pointers

The great bond bust

Deteriorating relations between the holders of Zambia's $3 billion Eurobonds and the government after its 22 September request for a six-month suspension of coupon payments point to one...


Bottling Wine

Uganda's Chief of Defence Forces, General David Muhoozi, is in the spotlight over suspicious dealings with the man who is seeking to deregister a political party he...