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Published 9th January 2020

Vol 61 No 1


African spring, economic winter

April 2019. People celebrate outside Army HQ in Khartoum. Pic: Ala Kheir/DPA/PA Images
April 2019. People celebrate outside Army HQ in Khartoum. Pic: Ala Kheir/DPA/PA Images

Fresh from signal victories in Khartoum and Algiers, youthful mass movements are demanding jobs, opportunities and accountability as financial uncertainty grows

Two developments in the past year will be of seismic importance in 2020: the revolutionary movements in Algeria and Sudan and the start of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). The tension between the aspirations of Africa's overwhelmingly young 1.2 billion people and the continent's sluggish economic progress is palpable throughout the continent's 30 million square kilometres. In several countries, especially in the bigger economies such as Algeria, Nigeria and South Africa where hopes are highest, the political temperature is close to boiling point. It will take quantities of political will not seen so far to respond to such pressures with a credible plan.

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Finally, Cyril picks up the pace

Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: Victoria Jones/PA Images
Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: Victoria Jones/PA Images

The stage is set for the clash between state prosecutors and Ramaphosa’s ANC enemies. The first trials will open soon

Sympathisers with President Cyril Ramaphosa's project to clean up governance are frustrated with his agonisingly slow strategy. He needs to speed up the suffocation of his opponents within...

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Jockeying for position

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020

Elections may be two years away but the race to form new electoral alliances already dominates national politics

Kenya began 2020 with erratic and intractable factional politics as the top two candidates for the next presidential election – William Ruto and Raila Odinga – counter each...


Back to the one-party state

Civil and political rights will remain constrained as Magufuli seeks a landslide in the general election to endorse his statist vision

The prospect of the October general election will dominate 2020. Last year, pre-poll government interference in the local elections saw up to 90% of opposition candidates being disqualified,...


Presidential action replay

The odds favour the incumbent in this year’s presidential elections – a return match of 2016 – but by a much-reduced margin

Eleven months ahead of national elections, the best guess is that President Nana Addo Akufo-Addo will win more narrowly than he did in 2016 and his New Patriotic...


Point of no return

Public finances head south while the Patriotic Front clamps down on dissent ahead of next year’s election

The ruling Patriotic Front's continued state of denial about the country's dire debt situation sees the year begin with loan defaults, dwindling state revenues, disintegrating public services and...


Advantage jihadists

Domestic political jockeying and stop-start funding for peacekeeping leave Bamako a sitting target for the Islamist insurgents

For President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta the new year brings renewed diplomatic pressure – and not just from an international community exasperated by the lack of progress in implementing...


Portents over the presidency

Rumours swirl around who the candidates will be and whether any of them can quell simmering public resentment

Ivorians go to the polls in October in what promises to be a no-holds-barred battle for the presidency. The main contenders are familiar – possibly too familiar to...


Polls, poverty and protest

Economic policy aims to spur growth and investment, while the regime keeps an iron fist in reserve for mass unrest

President Abdel Fattah el Sisi's government hopes this year to build on the stabilisation of Egypt's macro-economy over the past three years to deliver tangible improvements to living...