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Published 9th August 2019

Vol 60 No 16


Libya

Proxies battle over Tripoli

A wounded GNA fighter cries after some of his comrades were killed at Salah Al-Din front in July. Pic: Amru Salahuddien/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images
A wounded GNA fighter cries after some of his comrades were killed at Salah Al-Din front in July. Pic: Amru Salahuddien/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images

There's a stalemate on the ground while each side's foreign supporters use high-tech weaponry to try to change the strategic balance

As the campaign of Benghazi-based strongman Khalifa Haftar to take Tripoli slows down, foreign powers are putting more and more resources into the fight, including armed drones and psychological warfare tactics in social and mass media. There's been a let-up in the overall level of casualties, but about 1,100 people, over 100 of them civilians, have been killed and around 120,000 people displaced, many of them to Tunisia.

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From revolution to realpolitik

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2019
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2019

Neither side likes the deal. The generals want to play for time and the activists see it as a first step to power

For the thousands gathering in central Khartoum, waving flags and sounding horns around the Friendship Hall, the constitutional declaration initialled on 4 August was far from the revolutionary...


The Crown Prince’s power play

From Benghazi to Assab and Khartoum, the UAE’s strongman has emerged as a key player in regional conflicts

The world has woken up to the dynamic and ruthless Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the United Arab Emirates Armed Forces, Sheikh Mohammed bin...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The first reaction to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change's plans to mount national protests next week against Zimbabwe's economic meltdown might be: what took them so long?

It also follows the last wave of protests in January when the MDC lagged behind young civic activists, students and trade unionists who demanded that the government, with several millionaires in its ranks, do more to protect the poor. Instead of fixing the economy, they complained, President Emmerson Mna...

The first reaction to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change's plans to mount national protests next week against Zimbabwe's economic meltdown might be: what took them so long?

It also follows the last wave of protests in January when the MDC lagged behind young civic activists, students and trade unionists who demanded that the government, with several millionaires in its ranks, do more to protect the poor. Instead of fixing the economy, they complained, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's regime was hiring companies to lobby against sanctions and spy on text messages and social media.

Those arguments will be sharpened further with the announcement by the UN that a third of Zimbabwe's 17 million people face a food crisis this year, worsened by what is forecast to be the worst drought for two decades.

This coincides with Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube's tough new reforms, slashing state spending as inflation hits 500% (although statistics are to be withheld for the rest of the year). There are also chronic shortages of bread and fuel as foreign exchange reserves dry up, and power cuts of 18 hours at a time. After reintroducing the Zimbabwe dollar and banning local use of the US dollar, the government is waiting until the IMF and the banks back its plan with some hard cash. That may not be enough as the government readies itself for an opposition on the march.

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High risks, low politics

Attempts to resolve the worsening herder-farmer clashes are foundering as politicians exploit regional loyalties

Of the myriad security threats in Nigeria, herder-farmer clashes which have killed more than 4,000 people and seen at least 250,000 chased from their homes in the past...


Meltdown in the party

A secret internal report exposes the in-fighting, ghost members and battles for state spoils that are wrecking the ANC

By a quirk of history, it fell to Ace Magashule, Secretary General of the African National Congress and leading beneficiary of Jacob Zuma's leadership, to deliver the most...


Guilty plea on conspiracy

The case against the bankers in the $2bn loans scandal has brought confessions, but there are doubts about how deep the trial will go

The United States case against eight defendants accused of fraud and money-laundering in Mozambique's US$2 billion hidden loan scandal has secured two guilty pleas at the Eastern District...


Cashew crisis grinds on

The President’s decision to act first and reflect later is proving costly for what should be the country’s most valuable export crop

Last November, President John Pombe Magufuli took cashew marketing out of the hands of private traders, who refused to pay the price he demanded for raw cashew and...


Leaning to the left

The government’s zeal for wide-ranging reforms is flagging against a pushback by his enemies within and outside the ANC

Battered by an economy in recession and a ruling party riven by corruption, President Cyril Ramaphosa's ability to drive radical economic and political reforms is coming increasingly into...


The party and the pendulum

Political fortunes are swinging back and forth but the President's foes in the ANC are preparing for a survival struggle

After the latest round of proxy battles, President Cyril Ramaphosa is marginally ahead of his predecessor Jacob Zuma, but his supporters warn that his opponents still control too...



Pointers

AGOA no go

The days of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which has granted tariff-free access for 6,500 products to the United States from 39 African countries since 2000, may...


Bunkering mentality

In the piracy-riven Gulf of Guinea, there is doubt as to whether one particular vessel, the Indian-registered MT Apecus, was a victim of pirates or a pirate ship....