confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
Axis of authoritarians
Blue Lines
The axis of authoritarians, fuelled by geopolitical tensions, was on parade in Cairo on 30 March when Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el Sisi received Sudan's military leader General Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Aside from a mutual distrust of democracy, these neighbours have other causes in common. They may calculate that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine could relieve the pressure on other authoritarian states. Others have sensed a note of desperation in western leaders' entreaties to oil and gas producers Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
It's all in the cause of weaning Europe off its dependence on Russia. Egypt and Sudan don't have enough oil and gas to make much difference on that score but they are a critical part of regional security arrangements. Egypt, which gets US$1.3 billion of military aid, voted to deplore Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the UN. Sudan's military junta, which has had tens of billions of debt relief and an aid programme frozen, abstained. In both cases there was a transactional logic.
Along with navigating the rivalries between Washington, Paris, Moscow and Beijing, these authoritarian regimes have pressing concerns: managing the rocketing price of bread and fuel. And they may look along the North African littoral with some concern as Tunisia, the birthplace of the North African uprisings in 2011, heads for a new political cataclysm, fuelled again by rising prices.