confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
AU delegates search for funds for 100,000 peacekeepers
Patrick Smith
This week we start in Kigali, which is hosting the summit of
the African Union, and stay in East Africa to hear that the region's
three biggest economies are putting their trade negotiations with the
European Union on hold. If the latest opinion polls in South
Africa prove accurate the African National Congress faces a
big upset in next month's local elections. Meanwhile, São
Toméans wait patiently for the results of the 17 July
presidential elections and Zimbabwe's finance
minister says that sanctions are blocking his economic reform plan.
AFRICAN UNION: Delegates search for funds for 100,000
peacekeepers
Money and conflict dominate discussions at the African
Union summit in Rwanda on 15-18 July. Nkosazana
Dlamini-Zuma, outgoing Chair of the AU Commission, wants to
make progress on her plan to make the AU more financially
self-sufficient before she leaves office.
Currently there are about 100,000 peacekeepers serving in
Africa, either under the AU or United Nations flag or, in some cases
such as in Sudan's Darfur region, under joint AU-UN
command. With fresh calls for an international force in South
Sudan after this month's fighting in Juba, the demand for
peacekeepers is increasing. Dlamini-Zuma and other senior AU officials
are frustrated by the extent that former colonial powers in Europe have
political influence, because they are providing the money. Veteran Algerian
diplomat Smaïl Chergui, the AU
Commissioner for Peace and Security, has been pushing for a
special fund to provide about a quarter of the cash needed for AU
peacekeeping operations until 2021. He argued that the UN Security
Council should finance the balance. Whatever the terms of the request
that the AU puts to the UN, there's unlikely to be any considered
response until the global body elects its new Secretary General at the
end of September.
EAST AFRICA: Regional states stall negotiations with
Europe after Brexit
First Tanzania suspends its ten-year
negotiations for a new trade treaty with the European Union, and now Kenya
and Uganda say they are also putting the talks on
hold. This is an early sign of the commercial complications caused by Britain's
decision last month to leave the European Union.
All three countries — founding members of the East African
Community — have been embroiled in tortuous negotiations for Economic
Partnership Agreements with the EU but still have many concerns about
proposed rules on services and intellectual property, widely regarded
as too generous to Europe. Some African negotiators want to try to get
a better deal with Britain (some 10% of Kenya's exports are to the
United Kingdom), which could then reshape negotiations with the EU.
SOUTH AFRICA: Polls predict heavy ANC defeats in key
urban centres
If the pollsters are right – which remains a big
question – the governing African National Congress, and particularly
its President Jacob Zuma, is facing an electoral
disaster in local and municipal elections on 4 August. The latest
opinion polls give the centre-right Democratic Alliance a lead of 39%
over the ANC’s 25% in the run-up to the municipal elections in the
commercial capital Johannesburg and the political capital, Pretoria and
Tshwane. Support there for the radical Economic Freedom Fighters is
reckoned at around 13%.
The ANC is still trailing the DA in the National Mandela Bay
municipality, which includes the industrial hub of Port Elizabeth, in
Eastern Cape: DA support is running at 42% in Nelson Mandela Bay
against the ANC’s 27% and the EFF’s 8%.
ANC loyalists question the accuracy of the pollsters' sampling
methods and argue that much will depend on turnout: they insist that
the ANC's bigger national organisation, not to mention resources, will
enable it to boost its support in the polling stations.
SAO TOME E PRINCIPE: President Pinto da Costa
vies for second term
São Toméans will know within the next few days whether President Manuel
Pinto da Costa has won a second term after national elections
on 17 July. The other leading candidates include Evaristo
Carvalho, a former Speaker of parliament, and former Prime
Minister Maria das Neves.
ZIMBABWE: Chinamasa says sanctions threaten reforms
and debt deal
In Rwanda for the African Union summit, Finance Minister
Patrick Chinamasa has said that international
sanctions – particularly the United States block
on loans from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank – are
blocking his efforts to negotiate a re-entry into the international
financial system.
Speaking at Africa Confidential's conference on
Zimbabwe on 5 July, Chinamasa said the government was hoping that the
boards of the IMF and the World Bank would approve its arrears
clearance plan in September and soon afterwards approve fresh
loans.
It seems that some of the banks involved in raising 'bridging
finance' for the deal are having problems in the international markets,
specifically concerns about the legal implications of US sanctions on
Zimbabwe. Until these concerns are addressed, this will delay the deal
and add to the deepening sense of economic crisis in the country.
Delays in the payment of salaries for army, police, doctors, teachers
are exacerbating local discontent.