Vol 55 No 4 | SOMALIA Hassan Sheikh loses friends 18th February 2014 Security is worsening, and governance too. The President is increasingly isolated and even his staunchest international friends are losing patience with him The African Union Mission in Somalia has announced plans for a new offensive against Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, and troops are being positioned. Yet most Somalis...
Vol 55 No 3 | SOUTH SUDAN Seats for dissidents 7th February 2014 The four oppositionists still detained in Juba – Pa’gan Amum, Oyai Deng, Majak d’Agot, Ezekiel Lol – are unlikely to join the talks due in Addis Ababa on...
Vol 55 No 3 | SOMALIA New blood in old bottles 6th February 2014 There’s a new Premier but many feel that one greedy faction has simply replaced another. Momentum towards a functional state is slowing again The election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as President in September 2012 was meant to free politics of issues that had held it hostage for years: arguments between President...
Vol 55 No 3 | SOUTH SUDAN A deal under duress 24th January 2014 The combatants have signed up to a ceasefire more because they ran out of options than because they wanted peace The threat of targeted sanctions against the combatants and the concern of East Africa's leaders that they would lose face at next week's African Union summit were the...
Vol 55 No 2 | TANZANIA Parties jostle ahead of polls 24th January 2014 With national elections due in 2015, the decks are being cleared for action amidst fierce rivalries for the CCM nomination This is President Jakaya Kikwete’s last year in the presidency. It seems a very long time since he came to office in 2005 amid ringing pledges to fight...
Vol 55 No 2 | SOMALIA The statelets of the nation 24th January 2014 Mogadishu will gain little more control and the enclaves will jealously hang on to what they have. Al Shabaab will endure The New Year began with a new Prime Minister, Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed, and a newish cabinet – but no new brooms. Reshuffling the players in cabinet will...
Vol 55 No 2 | RWANDA Murder in the Michelangelo 16th January 2014 The killing of a political opponent to President Kagame in a Sandton hotel has riled Pretoria and could have wider consequences The arrest in Mozambique of three Rwandans this week in connection with the murder in South Africa of Colonel Patrick Karegeya, Rwanda's opposition leader and former spy chief,...
Vol 55 No 1 | KENYA Chickens come home to roost 10th January 2014 The thread that bound President Kenyatta together with his deputy Ruto is fraying. There are growing worries about terrorism Three questions loom over the country in 2014. Will President Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice-President William Ruto win their confrontation with the International Criminal Court? Will the government reform...
Vol 55 No 1 | SUDAN Staking it all on survival 10th January 2014 This year will be about political survival for the regime and Omer el Beshir; and physical survival for many Sudanese trapped in war and poverty 2014 is constitutionally designated as President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir’s last full year in power. The year will be devoted to trying to ensure that Field Marshal...
Vol 55 No 1 | SOUTH SUDAN The state cracks 10th January 2014 Big political changes will be needed to relaunch Africa’s newest country and bring it back from the abyss A long road lies ahead before the mediators can secure a ceasefire between South Sudan’s warring factions, let alone embark on serious negotiations to consolidate a new political...