Vol 67 No 9 |
- KENYA
- FRANCE
Courting capital from Beijing to the Gulf and Paris to become Africa’s Singapore, the President is being stymied by a fuel import scandal and fraying regional alliances
William Samoei Ruto opened the Africa Finance Corporation summit on 23 April in Nairobi last week flanked by Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote and Uganda's Yoweri Museveni – a tableau...
On a three-day trip to Italy, the President agreed multiple funding deals under Giorgia Meloni's €5.5bn Mattei Plan but the opposition questions the pace and volume of disbursements
President William Ruto’s sales pitch to Italian politicians and business leaders went down well, even if some of his claims strained credulity. ‘If you are looking at de-carbonising...
Jihadist fighters in Cabo Delgado are rebooting their campaign on land and sea as a row over cash could end Rwanda’s security operations
When France’s TotalEnergies resumed work on its US$25 billion gas project on Afungi in January, it was taken as a challenge by the jihadist insurgents based in the...
Three years into a war that has killed 150,000 people, the world's diplomats found it easier to write cheques than to name the Gulf states fuelling the fighting
More than 120 delegations met in Berlin on April 15 for an international conference marking three years of Sudan's civil war and raising pledges of over €1.5 billion...
Allegations over Kenya’s role in Sudan’s conflict – all denied by Nairobi – are straining relations with Khartoum
The detail in a United States Treasury Department sanctions list in February that Algoney Hamdan Dagalo Musa, the youngest brother of the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)...
Fresh evidence reveals covert military cooperation on Ethiopia’s western frontier, reshaping the dynamics of Sudan’s war
When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in February, he raised questions about Ethiopia’s rumoured involvement in Sudan’s war and the alleged presence...
Tadesse Werede’s extended mandate points to a fragile accommodation, with both sides managing pressure while holding off a renewed clash
With the mandate of Tigray’s interim administration expiring, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has opted to retain the existing leadership rather than push Tigrayan allies into authority. Federal authorities...
Vol 67 No 7 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Juba looks determined to escalate the fighting by marginalising Riek Machar’s camp and unilaterally rewriting the 2018 peace accord
Impervious to African and international criticism, the government in Juba is pressing ahead with a militarist strategy that has led regional experts to argue that the country has...
Fink Haysom, the anti-apartheid lawyer who helped end Sudan's north-south war and spent his final years trying to mediate in South Sudan serial crises, has died
The death of Nicholas ‘Fink’ Haysom in New York on 17 March strips the United Nations of its most tenacious voice for accountability in South Sudan and is...
Vol 67 No 7 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Forced displacement is pushing Jonglei towards famine conditions as the government expels the very agencies trying to avert catastrophe
In late January, government forces ordered civilians, UN personnel and humanitarian workers to move from several counties in Jonglei, including from the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)...
The daughter of opposition leader Raila Odinga is continuing the family dynasty and its shaky alliance with President Ruto
The Odinga family strengthened its grip on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) following a Special National Delegates Convention (SDC) on 26 March but its political base will be...
The ODM’s oligarchs are determined to build a coalition with President Ruto – but the party’s rebels are gathering support
On 10 March, President William Ruto fired the starter’s gun on coalition talks with the Orange Democratic Movement in the traditional Kenyan way – by setting up a...
Vol 67 No 6 |
- KENYA
- TANZANIA
A Tanzanian business mogul with close ties to regional presidents could reshape East Africa’s largest media group
Rostam Aziz’s takeover of Kenya-based Nation Media Group (NMG) is more than a business deal: it hands East Africa’s most influential media conglomerate to one of Tanzanian President...
Targeted by EU and US sanctions, Rwanda says it won’t protect western assets in Mozambique without new funding
Neither side has blinked yet in the poker game between Rwandan officials and their counterparts in the United States and the European Union. A flurry of meetings...
As the federal government masses troops along Tigray’s borders, the prime minister is weighing his most perilous gamble yet
As much of the world focused on the United States-Israeli war with Iran this month, Ethiopian army convoys carrying heavy weapons were filmed moving north in broad daylight....
As France hosts its first-ever summit in Anglophone Africa bringing in Kenya, Uganda, Germany and India, it tries to drop the old post-colonial playbook
The choice of Kenya to host the France-Africa summit on 11-12 May, a first for an Anglophone state, suits the policy aims of both President Emmanuel Macron and...
With Museveni's seventh term secured, his son General Muhoozi is silencing rivals and packing the cabinet with loyalists
In many ways Chief of Defence Forces General Muhoozi Kainerugaba is claiming his father President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s victory in the 15 January elections as his own breakthrough....
Hassan Sheikh tightens his grip while a divided opposition flounders, fuelling fears of an increasingly authoritarian turn
After months of wrangling over constitutional review and the electoral process, February was expected to mark a breakthrough – a moment to settle proposed constitutional changes, agree on...
President Félix Tshisekedi’s government is pressing its diplomatic advantage after the US State Department sanctioned the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and four of its senior commanders for their...
Somaliland and Somalia are in a mining-based competition to influence Washington’s stance but the prevailing mood there may be indifference
Somaliland Minister of the Presidency Khadar Hussein Abdi repeated on 21 February an oft-made promise: Hargeisa will grant the United States access to its mineral resources, including lithium...
State lenders claim that private creditors have secured unfair advantages in Addis Ababa’s drawn-out debt restructuring talks
Seven months after signing a crucial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with bilateral creditors, Ethiopia’s hopes that recent progress in negotiations with bondholders would hasten a comprehensive debt-restructuring agreement...
Government claims double-digit expansion, yet hardship and scepticism remain widespread
With Ethiopia heading to the polls in June, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his ruling Prosperity Party radiate optimism on the economy. Not only has annual inflation returned...
Vol 67 No 4 |
- KENYA
- RUSSIA
A report by the All Eyes on Wagner (AEOW) investigative group, published on 11 February, lists 1,417 fighters from 35 African countries who joined the Russian army between...
The sacking of Edwin Sifuna as Secretary-General of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is a desperate attempt by party leader Oburu Odinga to contain divisions but risks breaking...
Western states have cut funding in protest at state violence during the election but gold and domestic borrowing are plugging the gap for now
The crisis in foreign relations triggered by horror at the conduct of Tanzania’s 29 October general election crisis, when hundreds were believed killed by security forces, has compelled...
Pro-democracy activists across the region are rallying together, but they are being met with brutal and coordinated repression by state authorities
‘Don’t try this again,’ was the message to dozens of pro-democracy activists from across East Africa as they were deported from Tanzania last year after attempting to attend...
The President envisages a two-three million margin of victory in next year’s elections as ambitious contenders flock to his party
President William Ruto is bullish. He is aiming for re-election in August 2027 ‘by a margin of between two and three million so that we unite the country...
Clashes in the disputed western areas risk igniting a wider conflict across the Horn, drawing in outside sponsors
A new war in Tigray – one that could again pull in Eritrea – is looking more likely after clashes broke out on 27 January between Tigrayan forces...
On 9 January, the Tanzanian High Court threw out a request from a British court to enforce a ruling that Pan Africa Power Solutions (PAP), owned by Harbinder...
A fierce crackdown and a fractured opposition decisively shifted the contest long before the votes were counted
President Yoweri Museveni was expected to retain power following the 15 January polls. But few anticipated he would win with such a margin or that the ruling party...
Oppositionists make progress on a unity deal as insurgents tighten their grip on Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia
Ethiopia is trapped in a stalemate. With military victory impossible and political consensus unreachable, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government is falling back on divide and rule. The prime...
Vol 67 No 2 |
- KENYA
- WHO'S WHO
The death of Raila Odinga last October left a void in Kenyan politics and at the heart of his Orange Democratic Movement. ODM was Raila’s fiefdom. It was...
The reshuffled ministerial team reinforces the President’s authoritarian stance after the election killings
The ministerial reshuffle announced on 8 January powerfully refutes claims by defenders of President Samia Suluhu Hassan that her authoritarian policies ahead of the 29 October election were...
Dar es Salaam’s transit reforms are stalling due to vested interests and use of opaque private companies
On 8 January, 49 buses were delivered to Dar es Salaam port – with another 50 due later this month – as part of an emergency response to...
The only unknown in Uganda’s election is the margin of the incumbent’s violent victory, as citizens look forward with alarm to the prospect of his son’s rule
Ahead of polling day on 15 January the streets of Kampala were thronged not with citizens, but with lines of armoured personnel carriers and uniformed police and soldiers...
Bujumbura’s army took a hammering from Rwandan and M23 militia forces when it tried to help Kinshasa
President Évariste Ndayishimiye’s New Year jitters after the capture by M23 and Rwandan troops of Uvira, a city 5 kilometres from the Burundian border, will hardly have been...
For now, Prime Minister Abiy’s federal government lacks the military capacity to escalate its war of words with Eritrea
The dark clouds of a new Ethiopia-Eritrea war are set to linger over Addis Ababa in 2026. Yet despite an ongoing risk of escalation, hostilities will likely remain...
The president will use 2026 to strengthen the broad-based coalition that is likely to carry him to re-election in August 2027
An early test will be internal elections in William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) – initially supposed to take place in mid-2024 but which will now happen on...
Kigali holds its economy on course as it funds its Donbas strategy in neighbouring Congo-Kinshasa
Rwanda has kept its extensive operations in Congo-Kinshasa off-budget by reviving its military’s involvement in the eastern Congolese mineral trade. Evidence of increased military spending could have derailed...
National unity, progress against Al Shabaab and international disarray flow from Israel’s recognition of the Somali statelet, along with more unknowns
Any joy at Mogadishu’s successful completion of local elections on 26 December was quickly extinguished by the shock news of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state,...
Investment may plummet and growth may slow if no state agencies are held to account for the brutal repression of election protests
Keeping the economy afloat in the face of international moves to suspend funding and investments is the biggest challenge facing President Samia Suluhu Hassan as she attempts to...
Geopolitical tensions are rising, clashes between the powers behind the warring parties are increasing, and the communal element of the fighting is worsening
Sudan’s conflict is changing. What started as a military confrontation between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in April 2023 has evolved into something else...
Few doubt that Yoweri Museveni will extend his presidency into its 41st year with elections on 15 January. What happens next is far less clear
The government of Yoweri Museveni is leaving nothing to chance, and the president’s son (and presumed heir), Defence Forces chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has been put at the...
Washington lobbyists are clashing over the rival claims of the federal government and the secessionists
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s federal government in Mogadishu is being targeted for security and governance failures by senior Republicans in the United States who want Washington to recognise...