Vol 54 No 3 | UGANDA Coup calls 1st February 2013 If President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni had wanted to push the dissident young members of parliament in his party back into line with talk of a military coup, he...
Vol 54 No 2 | SOMALIA Regional alliances shifting 18th January 2013 New international forces like Qatar and President Hassan’s assertion of his independence are changing the balance of power For weeks, diplomats in Kenya have fretted about the brewing discord between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia and Mwai Kibaki of Kenya. They finally met in Nairobi...
Vol 54 No 2 | SOMALIAFRANCE French Somalia raid ‘was a trap’ 18th January 2013 The raid by French Special Forces on 11 January on the place where Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen was believed to be holding a French intelligence officer...
Vol 54 No 1 | TANZANIA Electricity and elections 10th January 2013 As multinational companies start bidding for gas assets, the governing CCM is desperate to halt the slide in its popularity Tanzania’s next elections may be nearly three years away but they are already affecting national politics. Within the governing Chama Cha Mapinduzi, tension will increase as the race...
Vol 54 No 1 | KENYA A race to the bottom 10th January 2013 The electoral calculus appears to favour Odinga but ethnic and regional loyalties could provoke violence and millions of voters remain undecided Kenya’s 50th Independence celebrations at the end of the year will be shaped by the general elections in March, the first since the violently disputed 2007 polls. This...
Vol 54 No 1 | SUDAN Khartoum in a corner 10th January 2013 Pressure will mount on the ruling party as its political and military opponents reorganise and the economy weakens Two pressing challenges – the failing economy and a more effective opposition – will confront the National Congress Party regime this year. There is no prospect of...
Vol 54 No 1 | SUDAN Omer el Beshir’s New Year’s Party 10th January 2013 Only one other head of state stood on the podium beside President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir on 1 January. That was President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia....
Vol 54 No 1 | SOUTH SUDAN Let them eat fish 10th January 2013 Oil may start flowing again but it will take more than that to rescue a weak economy and internal feuds will continue South Sudanese will have to wait longer for their peace dividend. The main prospects for 2013 are more fraught negotiations with Khartoum on security and oil and most...
Vol 54 No 1 | SOUTH SUDAN Falling foreign support 10th January 2013 Juba’s failure to react to its shrinking reservoir of international goodwill was illustrated firstly, by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army shooting down a helicopter of the United Nations...
Vol 54 No 1 | SOMALIA The longer war 10th January 2013 The government came in on a wave of optimism but will find it tough to maintain momentum. Al Shabaab is on the back foot but not defeated Optimism was high last September when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took office and appointed a cabinet led by Abdi Farah Shirdon ‘Said’ (AC Vol 53 No 22). The...