Vol 54 No 1 | KENYA A race to the bottom 10th January 2013 The electoral calculus appears to favour Odinga but ethnic and regional loyalties could provoke violence and millions of voters remain undecided Kenya’s 50th Independence celebrations at the end of the year will be shaped by the general elections in March, the first since the violently disputed 2007 polls. This...
Vol 54 No 1 | SUDAN Khartoum in a corner 10th January 2013 Pressure will mount on the ruling party as its political and military opponents reorganise and the economy weakens Two pressing challenges – the failing economy and a more effective opposition – will confront the National Congress Party regime this year. There is no prospect of...
Vol 54 No 1 | SUDAN Omer el Beshir’s New Year’s Party 10th January 2013 Only one other head of state stood on the podium beside President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir on 1 January. That was President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia....
Vol 54 No 1 | SOUTH SUDAN Let them eat fish 10th January 2013 Oil may start flowing again but it will take more than that to rescue a weak economy and internal feuds will continue South Sudanese will have to wait longer for their peace dividend. The main prospects for 2013 are more fraught negotiations with Khartoum on security and oil and most...
Vol 54 No 1 | SOUTH SUDAN Falling foreign support 10th January 2013 Juba’s failure to react to its shrinking reservoir of international goodwill was illustrated firstly, by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army shooting down a helicopter of the United Nations...
Vol 54 No 1 | SOMALIA The longer war 10th January 2013 The government came in on a wave of optimism but will find it tough to maintain momentum. Al Shabaab is on the back foot but not defeated Optimism was high last September when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took office and appointed a cabinet led by Abdi Farah Shirdon ‘Said’ (AC Vol 53 No 22). The...
Vol 54 No 1 | SOMALIA Northern parts 10th January 2013 Somaliland’s success story will come under growing regional pressure in 2013, partly because of developments in neighbouring Somalia. The key issue for Somaliland remains diplomatic recognition as a...
Vol 53 No 25 | KENYA Shotgun wedding season 14th December 2012 The deadline for electoral alliances has forced some unlikely political bedfellows to tie the knot, however reluctantly With barely three months to go before the general elections, the 4 December deadline on pre-poll deals forced Kenya’s promiscuous political class into a flurry of shotgun weddings....
Vol 53 No 25 | SUDAN Sadig calls for regime change 14th December 2012 As pressure builds in Khartoum, the grand old man of the Umma Party tries to win back power The Prime Minister that the National Islamic Front (NIF) overthrew in 1989, El Sadig el Sideeg el Mahdi, sees a chance to win back power as conflict deepens...
Vol 53 No 25 | TANZANIA Mengi beaned in court 14th December 2012 Reginald Mengi, a Tanzanian media tycoon who is a friend and backer of President Jakaya Kikwete, has been ordered to pay £1.2 million (US$1.94 mn.) towards the legal...