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Ethiopia

Abiy soldiers on

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Abiy Ahmed at the BRICS Summit 2024. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Despite regional setbacks and domestic insurgencies, the Prime Minister is set to pursue his vision of a modernised Ethiopia using military means

In mid-December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brokered a deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia. Under strong Turkish pressure – both Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan participated in the eight hours of talks – the two leaders agreed to respect the territorial integrity, unity and sovereignty of each other’s state.


Ruto prioritises coalition-building as his re-election ticket

William Ruto signing parliamentary bills, December 2024. With John Mbadi, Musalia Mudavadi and others. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Six months after the Gen Z protests forced him to sack his cabinet and drop a finance bill, the President wants to befriend old rivals

After a year of turmoil when he appeared to be in office but not in power, President William Ruto wants to focus on building a new coalition to...


President Tinubu’s oil optimism doesn’t add up, yet

Local companies taking over onshore production and international offshore plays won’t plug the revenue holes

Widespread scepticism greeted President Bola Tinubu’s ‘Budget of Restoration’ when he presented it to the National Assembly on 18 December – mainly due to doubts about the oil...


Moscow helps Obiang’s dynastic succession plan

Pic: @teonguema

Security concerns in Central Africa have brought Presidents Obiang and Putin into a closer embrace

Restive militaries, recurring financial crises and transitions under two ageing authoritarian leaders are pressuring governments in Central Africa. These developments both pose threats and offer opportunities to Russia....


Dropping France, Mahamat Kaka tilts to Turkey and the UAE

Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno ‘Kaka’. Pic: @GmahamatIdi

Ndjamena’s strategic switch helps Abu Dhabi more than Russia for now

Taking Paris by surprise on 20 December, the Chadian government ordered French troops to leave the country by the end of January, marking a final rupture after some...


Frelimo falters as a people’s uprising gathers steam

Albino José Sibia ‘Mano Shottas’

Anger is rising as civic activists say police have killed over 130 protestors and the Constitutional Council prepares to rule on disputed election

Mozambique’s police crossed a previously unthinkable line on 14 December when they opened fire on mourners after the funeral of 30-year-old Albino José Sibia, known as ‘Mano Shottas’....

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The Sahel-exit splits open Ecowas

Ecowas sixty-sixth ordinary session, 15 December 2024, Abuja, Nigeria. Pic: @ecowas_cedeao

Nigeria’s Tinubu presides over the regional bloc’s worst ever crisis

The break up of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) into two rival blocs is now irreversible. At an emergency summit in Abuja on 15 December,...


Mahama lacks time to turn his promised reset into reality

President-elect Mahama meets President Akufo-Addo to discuss the transition process, 11 December 2024. Pic: @JDMahama

Pledging a lean and accountable government, the new President says he will end nuisance taxes but keep the IMF reform programme on track

Following his victory in the 7 December presidential elections and securing a two-thirds majority in parliament, President-elect John Dramani Mahama has the executive power and the parliamentary support...


Mahama leads a decisive NDC comeback

Ghana presidential election held on 7 December, 2024. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Vice-President Bawumia concedes early to ‘preserve the peace of our country’ amid sharpening polarisation

Former President John Dramani Mahama won the 7 December presidential election decisively – defeating Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and leading the opposition National...


Tinubu prepares to present 2025 budget

Nigeria: Naira weakens, subsidies fall, revenues improve. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Foreign exchange and tax reforms are praised by international banks but most Nigerians are yet to see the benefits

For the multilateral financial institutions and investment banks, President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms are stabilising the country’s finances and staunching the loss of billions of dollars in revenues...

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Reforms spark a national tax revolt

Pic: @officialABAT

State governors and federal lawmakers oppose plans to centralise revenue collection in a new agency in Abuja

President Bola Tinubu’s alliance with northern Nigeria, which helped him get into power last year, risks falling apart as he attempts to re-engineer the country’s revenue structure. Tinubu’s...


Chantal Biya gains ground as an old ally falls

The Biyas. Pic: @ChantalBIYA_Cmr

After a heated argument with the First Lady, Rear-Admiral Joseph Fouda was drummed out of the presidency accused of fraud

He headed no unit of the Cameroonian armed forces, nor did he even grace its highest ranks, let alone did he earn President Paul Biya’s eternal gratitude by...


New alliances on shaky ground

Hassan Joho and William Ruto at State House Nairobi. Pic: @HassanAliJoho

The putative opposition is enjoying its five seats in government but is hedging its bets before committing to a formal coalition with Ruto

Even by the standards of Kenyan politics, where the bitterest political enemies in one election can become close allies at the next, the five members of Raila Odinga’s...


SWAPO bucks the regional trend

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Pic: @VPSWAPO

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, the ruling party’s first female presidential candidate, now has to deliver on her jobs promise

SWAPO retained power in the presidential and legislative elections last month although on a smaller vote share than in 2019 amid claims by the opposition of skulduggery in...


Zimbabwe readmission ‘is off’

Baroness Patricia Scotland welcomes Emmerson Mnangagwa to Marlborough House, May 2023. Pic: @PScotlandCSG

The UK won’t support Zimbabwe’s readmission to the Commonwealth, we hear, although it could threaten its charm offensive on the continent


Bawumia tries to defy economic gravity

Ghana presidential and parliamentary elections held on 7 December 2020. © Africa Confidential 2024

Against a backdrop of slow recovery from a devastating national debt crisis, the vice-president promises to make history

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Tinubu looks to his military home boys

President Bola Tinubu at the funeral of Lt Gen Taoreed Lagbaja. Pic: @officialABAT

After a spate of coups swept West Africa, the President has stacked key positions with officers from his home region