PREVIEW
Some officials insist the AGOA trade preference scheme will take precedence over the President’s executive order until September
Confusion reigns as officials and companies seek clarity on the timetable for the swingeing ‘reciprocal’ tariffs imposed on exports to the United States by President Donald Trump on 2 April. Some African policymakers insist that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) offering tariff and quota free trade to over 30 African states should take precedence over the White House executive order imposing the tariffs. On that basis, current trade arrangements could last until September when AGOA is due to expire (Dispatches, 31/3/25, The Trump tariffs on 2 April will call time on the AGOA free trade bill).
‘It is our considered view that until the law lapses at the end of September 2025 or unless repealed earlier by Congress, the new tariffs imposed by President Trump will, in any event, still not be immediately applicable,' said Kenya's Principal Secretary for Foreign Affairs Korir Sing'oei.
But South Africa’s trade and foreign affairs ministers, Parks Tau and Ronald Lamola, hardened by serial spats with the Trump administration this year, take a more fatalistic view. ‘The reciprocal tariffs effectively nullify the preferences that sub-Saharan Africa countries enjoy under AGOA,’ they said in a joint statement on 4 April. Rather than reciprocate on tariffs and further poison the relationship with the US, South African officials will wait it out. Until now, South Africa has enjoyed a healthy trade surplus until now, fuelled by strong sales of citrus fruits and motor vehicles to the US.
Before the tariffs were announced, Kenyan economist and former advisor to Uhuru Kenyatta government, Alexander Owino argued that AGOA would be ‘dead in the water’ under the new US administration that wanted to move towards bilateral trade arrangements. Other trade experts argue that since AGOA, passed by Congress, is contradicted by the Trump tariffs, which have been imposed by executive order, it would take a legal case to determine which takes precedence. Such a case would probably have to be filed by the US importers who will be required to pay the duties to the US Treasury.
Until such a case is filed, the Trump tariffs will take precedence and many African exporters will be caught in the net. Most African states will face 10% tariffs on their exports, the lowest rate imposed on Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’.
But some face market-busting duties. Lesotho has been hit with 50% tariffs on all goods, despite being one of only two African countries – Eswatini is the other – which trades more with the United States than with the European Union or China. South Africa, Angola and Botswana will also take a severe hit, facing 30%, 32% and 37% duties respectively.
The losses for African economies caused by lower access to the US market are reckoned to be far greater than those caused by the winding down of US Agency for International Development (USAID) under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (Dispatches, 28/1/25, Rubio deals hammer blow to US aid).
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