PREVIEW
The Ankara agreement sets the stage for talks on commercial sea access while reaffirming respect for sovereignty with major implications for Somaliland
Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud looks like the big winner from the so-called Ankara agreement struck with Ethiopia last week, which could effectively nix the memorandum of understanding (MoU) Addis Ababa brokered with Somaliland last December (AC Vol 65 No 2, Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding').
The two sides have agreed to talks aimed at reaching a commercial sea access agreement.
In a statement following talks on 11 December between Hassan Sheikh and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leaders ‘reaffirmed their respect and commitment to one another’s sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity’.
The statement emphasised that further talks on Ethiopia’s sea access, which was the main motivation for Addis Ababa’s interest in the MoU, would not compromise Somalia’s sovereignty.
Erdogan is set to visit Somalia and Ethiopia in early 2025.
In response to the MoU, Somalia cosied up to Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el Sisi, receiving military planes and a steady flow of weapons from Cairo.
There has been significant pressure from other regional players to resolve the dispute, with Djibouti and Kenya offering Ethiopia access to their ports.
Ending the row could also pave the way for Ethiopian troops to be part of the successor to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, whose mandate closes at the end of December.
African Union Commission chair, Moussa Faki Mahamat, described the Ankara agreement as an ‘important act of high responsibility’ but the AU’s absence from the mediation process has done nothing to advance its own credibility.
The rapprochement between Somalia and Ethiopia is also a major blow for Somaliland, whose diplomats had insisted that it would take no part in talks mediated by Turkey. They had expressed confidence that the MoU – which offered Ethiopia use of Berbera port in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s independence – was just the start of a broader push for international recognition (AC Vol 65 No 24, Hargeisa faces new pressures). Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro, who took office on 6 December after defeating Muse Bihi last month, had declared his support for the MoU with Addis.
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