PREVIEW
Kenyan President William Ruto says he and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni will help arbitrate the dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia
At the East African Community heads of state summit on 30 November, Kenyan President William Ruto told journalists that he and Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni had been asked to mediate the dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia. The conflict has intensified because of Addis Ababa’s plans to build a port in the breakaway region of Somaliland in exchange for recognition of its sovereignty (AC Vol 65 No 2, Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding').
The dispute has also thrown the fate of the African Union’s next transition mission in Somalia into doubt, with Mogadishu saying that the Ethiopian contingent – the region’s largest – cannot be part of the mission (Dispatches 12/11/24, Defence Minister insists Ethiopia not be part of new AU mission).
Somalia has edged closer to Egypt, which has quarrelled with Ethiopia for years over Addis Ababa’s construction of a vast hydro dam on the Nile River, striking a military deal with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi which has resulted in military aircraft and weaponry arriving in Mogadishu.
Finding an arbiter that both sides – and also Somaliland – regard as neutral has proved difficult. Officials in Mogadishu maintain they support mediation efforts by Turkey. Senior Somaliland diplomats have told Africa Confidential that they would not join mediation led by Ankara which was ‘biased’ in favour of Somalia.
Ruto and Museveni have stayed quiet on Ethiopia’s memorandum of understanding with Somaliland. ‘We have confidence that Kenya has better understanding of the context,’ a Somaliland diplomat told Africa Confidential. Whether they are acceptable to Somalia is less clear. Kenya has its own long-running maritime dispute with Somalia.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s office confirmed that he had met Ruto and Museveni on the sidelines of the summit. Yet the absence of any mention of potential mediation in the statement, suggests that the process may not move quickly.
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