Jump to navigation

Ethiopia

Abiy plays down threat of conflict over Red Sea access

The Prime Minister has made efforts to calm tensions amid the escalating dispute with Mogadishu and to avert his state’s potential isolation in the region

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s remarks to the Ethiopian parliament last week that his government was seeking access to the Red Sea ‘through peaceful means’ could mark a critical de-escalation in a dispute which has been becoming increasingly heated.

‘Let the world hear today, Ethiopia maintains a clear national interest – it needs Red Sea access through peaceful means,’ he said.

‘If we do not succeed, our children will,’ Abiy added.

Somalia and Ethiopia have been involved in a heated diplomatic dispute since Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway republic of Somaliland giving it access to the port of Berbera in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s sovereignty (AC Vol 65 No 2, Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding').

The situation has been further complicated by a recent military alliance between Somalia and Egypt, with Cairo sending C-130 military aircraft and the promise of troops to Mogadishu (AC Vol 65 No 19, Middle powers line up behind Addis and Mogadishu). That has prompted concerns in Addis Ababa that Egypt could seek to isolate it within the region and could impact on other issues such as the status of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The GERD has been a point of contention between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan for years, with Egypt and Sudan worried about the dam’s impact on their water supplies from the Nile River.

At the United Nations General Assembly last month, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre warned that Somalia faced a ‘serious threat’. Last week, Somalia expelled an Ethiopian diplomat from Mogadishu, accusing him of engaging in activities incompatible with his diplomatic role.

However, Abiy also appears to have rowed back on the significance of Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, questioning how a 50-year lease can be an annexation.



Related Articles

Middle powers line up behind Addis and Mogadishu

Egypt and Somalia have signed a military pact to scupper Ethiopia’s trade-off with Somaliland for a port in the Gulf of Aden

Nothing better illustrates the radical shift in regional relations than the defence agreement signed by Egypt and the Federal Government of Somalia on 14 August, two days after...

READ FOR FREE

Military tactics dominate

A one-sided dialogue is unlikely to deliver peace as Prime Minister Abiy pushes for total victory

Both sides in the war between federal and Tigrayan forces will condition their willingness to negotiate on the military situation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed starts the year having...


A radical bid for peace and economic change 

Abiy Ahmed will need strong backing from the party as well as his new security chiefs to make his new policies work

A credible offer to end the war with Eritrea and the opening up of state companies to private capital are Ethiopia's biggest strategic shifts in over a decade....


An Oromo rebellion constrains Abiy

Under international pressure, the federal government promised a truce in Tigray but is now losing ground to the Oromo insurgency

Just weeks after its 24 March announcement of an 'indefinite humanitarian truce' in the civil war in northern Ethiopia centred around the defiant Tigray region, the federal government...