PREVIEW
The Prime Minister has made efforts to calm tensions amid the escalating dispute with Mogadishu and to avert his state’s potential isolation in the region
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s remarks to the Ethiopian parliament last week that his government was seeking access to the Red Sea ‘through peaceful means’ could mark a critical de-escalation in a dispute which has been becoming increasingly heated.
‘Let the world hear today, Ethiopia maintains a clear national interest – it needs Red Sea access through peaceful means,’ he said.
‘If we do not succeed, our children will,’ Abiy added.
Somalia and Ethiopia have been involved in a heated diplomatic dispute since Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway republic of Somaliland giving it access to the port of Berbera in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s sovereignty (AC Vol 65 No 2, Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding').
The situation has been further complicated by a recent military alliance between Somalia and Egypt, with Cairo sending C-130 military aircraft and the promise of troops to Mogadishu (AC Vol 65 No 19, Middle powers line up behind Addis and Mogadishu). That has prompted concerns in Addis Ababa that Egypt could seek to isolate it within the region and could impact on other issues such as the status of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The GERD has been a point of contention between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan for years, with Egypt and Sudan worried about the dam’s impact on their water supplies from the Nile River.
At the United Nations General Assembly last month, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre warned that Somalia faced a ‘serious threat’. Last week, Somalia expelled an Ethiopian diplomat from Mogadishu, accusing him of engaging in activities incompatible with his diplomatic role.
However, Abiy also appears to have rowed back on the significance of Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, questioning how a 50-year lease can be an annexation.
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
https://www.africa-confidential.com
Prepared for Free Article on 22/01/2026 at 02:38. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact subscriptions@africa-confidential.com.