PREVIEW
Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections
The Commonwealth Secretariat is working to support Zimbabwe’s application to be readmitted to the mainly Anglophone, ex-British colonial group of nations, Africa Confidential has learned. The outgoing Secretary-General, Baroness Patricia Scotland, has written to member states seeking their views but making it clear she supports Harare’s candidacy. Many African members are also in favour.
The main opposition, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), and human rights groups are strongly opposed because of the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government’s disastrous human rights record, manipulation of the elections held in August last year, the incarceration of opposition parliamentarians and subversion of the judiciary.
Another obstacle is believed to be the Commonwealth Observer Group still-secret final report on last year’s elections, which Africa Confidential has now seen (See Box, Critical election report may obstruct readmisson). Zimbabwe was suspended from the Commonwealth in 2002 over the conduct of the re-election of President Robert Mugabe, and left the group when its suspension was upheld in 2003.
In 2007 the Commonwealth adopted a four-part process for re-admitting nations. In the first stage, Baroness Scotland conducted an informal assessment. In the second, on 16 October, she circulated her informal report to the membership, which has been invited to react by 26 November, according to internal correspondence we have seen. A source who saw the report said it strongly favours Zimbabwe’s readmission.
Under the process, the next stage is for Zimbabwe to make a ‘formal application’ which ‘has to be presented with evidence of a functioning democratic process and popular support in that country for joining the Commonwealth’.
Many wonder how Zimbabwe can pass either test with its current electoral infrastructure. The main faction of Zimbabwe’s CCC issued a statement just before the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa last week, saying the August 2023 election was ‘characterised by significant voter intimidation, and manipulation by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’, which is accused of running a corrupt electoral register.
It also protested the detention without trial of its members, including parliamentarians, and said that the judiciary had been ‘captured’ by the executive.
‘We urge the Commonwealth to reject Zimbabwe’s application for readmission until genuine reforms are implemented,’ it said.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) said that on top of the flawed election last year, ‘The crackdown on elected officials, opposition members, union leaders, students, and journalists that had more than 160 people arrested in June, July and August 2024 is just the most recent example of arbitrary arrests, torture and detention.’
It continued, ‘Readmitting Zimbabwe to the Commonwealth, and a reset of relations with the wider global community, should be predicated on Zimbabwe carrying out substantial legislative and electoral reforms, uphold the rule of law, end rights violations, end corruption, open up democratic space and bring those responsible for abuses to justice.’
Some Zimbabwe civil society groups, we hear, once favoured rejoining the Commonwealth because it could become another forum for pressure on ZANU-PF to reform. But, a political source in Harare said, ‘civil society has just given up. Since the 2023 election we've all seen that there wasn't any point to pushing for any of these things.’
The Commonwealth’s standards have been criticised. Two years ago, many thought the group was slackening its commitment to supporting democracy and human rights by admitting Togo and Gabon, both of which have non-credible elections, and for not being critical of Rwanda’s polls.
Ever since he came to power President Emmerson Mnangagwa has been holding meetings with Baroness Scotland, who has just been replaced as Commonwealth Secretary-General by Ghana’s Shirley Botchwey (AC Vol 65 No 22, Race tightens as African contenders vie for top post). But Scotland will oversee the Zimbabwe application because her term does not end until 1 April next year.
Insiders say ZANU-PF leaders fetishise re-admission as a solution to isolation. ‘I think they overestimate the importance of the Commonwealth in the world,’ the Harare source said. The state media is full of stories about the effort to rejoin the Commonwealth and Mnangagwa’s meetings with Scotland are always heavily covered. Support may be growing among many other African members – many of them see opportunities to win concessions from western countries preoccupied by the Middle East and Ukraine – but the United States is not ready (AC Vol 65 No 9, Washington targets Mnangagwa for rights abuses and corruption but sends mixed messages).
The US locked in its sanctions with the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZDERA) in 2001, renewed this year by Congress, and in March the Biden administration imposed US Global Magnitsky sanctions against Mnangagwa and other ZANU-PF leaders. The US and the EU diplomatic missions in Harare have low expectations of democratic reform.
On the other hand, Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) is believed to be sympathetic to Zimbabwe’s plea to rejoin amid increasing commercialism in British foreign policy. Senior British diplomats have been heard speaking strongly in favour of Zimbabwe’s re-admission in Harare. Zimbabwe’s massive lithium resources are often mentioned (AC Vol 64 No 5, Elite sets itself for lithium boom).
CRITICAL ELECTION REPORT MAY OBSTRUCT READMISSON
The Commonwealth Secretariat has come under fire for not publishing the final report of the Commonwealth Observer Group (COG) on Zimbabwe's August 2023 election. A press representative told Africa Confidential on 20 October it would appear ‘imminently’ but did not explain the delay.
We have seen a copy of the final report, whose critical tone may explain why it has not yet seen the light of day. One source said there was a ‘cabal’ in the heart of the Commonwealth Secretariat determined to see Zimbabwe back in the organisation which fears the impact of the COG report. The report follows an interim report issued shortly after polling closed, but issues and facts that were uncertain then have become clearer, and are confirmed in the report.
It starts by expressing optimism about the future and praising many aspects of the election’s conduct in language looked designed to support the country’s readmission and flattering to the authorities. But the observers then describe events which cause them to doubt the election’s fairness.
‘In the pre-election period,’ the report says, ‘there were a number of deficiencies, as detailed in this report; these on their own were significant enough to severely affect the overall credibility, transparency and inclusivity of the election.’
It goes on, ‘The combined impact of these shortcomings cannot escape the Group’s attention and, ultimately, the Group cannot endorse all aspects of the electoral process.’ Some regional organisations gave the elections a clean bill of health, but the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) report, organised by Zambia, was highly critical, earning a torrent of furious abuse from Harare when it was published (AC Vol 64 No 23, ZANU-PF's impostor plot).
Like the COG report, it focused on clear violations of Zimbabwean law in the conduct of the polls, such as the length of time polling stations were open, and availability of resources to all parties. Both also noted the intimidating effects of a group called Forever Associates Zimbabwe (FAZ) setting up tables outside polling stations in Bulawayo and Harare and taking notes on the electors in the queues. The group has been linked to the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) and to voter roll interference (AC Vol 64 No 10, ZANU-PF fires its electoral blunderbuss).
The COG final report also found a questionable boundary delimitation exercise, denials of candidate nominations, heavy bias towards the state in the mass media, unbalanced campaign finance, doubtful independence of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and harassment of journalists. Both COG and the SADC report pointed out numerous violations of Zimbabwean law too.
The key arguments about admission have changed greatly since 2002, when it was the fellow African leaders, including President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, who took the decision to suspend Zimbabwe and Mugabe in a fashion hard to imagine today.
|
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
https://www.africa-confidential.com
Prepared for Free Article on 01/11/2024 at 01:28. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact subscriptions@africa-confidential.com.