Jump to navigation

South Africa

ANC Executive mulls Ramaphosa's fate ahead of parliamentary vote

Presidential allies reckon they have the numbers to fight off a rebellion before national conference

Within three days of the parliamentary advisory panel's report on the Phala Phala affair landing on 30 November and concluding there may be grounds for his impeachment, President Cyril Ramaphosa has moved from resignation to fight back mode.

On the legal front, Ramaphosa's lawyers are filing papers with the Constitutional Court today (5 December) calling for judicial review of the panel's conclusions. That could stall the move towards an impeachment vote but it could also mean a forensic examination of the entire affair and some of Ramaphosa's business dealings.

Should the Constitutional Court take up the case, that would  work in Ramaphosa's favour. It would give Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, parliamentary speaker and Ramaphosa ally, an argument to delay the 6 December debate on his impeachment until after the Constitutional Court rules. That ruling is likely to be after the African National Congress's national conference from 16-20 December (AC Vol 63 No 24, A December surprise threatens Ramaphosa's second term).

That could keep Ramaphosa in the running in the leadership stakes in elections at the conference to secure another term as ANC President. It would also complicate the race for his main rivals ANC Treasurer General Paul Mashatile and former Health Minister Zweli Mkhize.

Much will hang on what happens at the party's National Executive Meeting today (5 December). The 80-member committee could decide to recall Ramaphosa while the legal processes play out, leaving Deputy President David 'DD' Mabuza as a stand-in until the national conference. That would have the virtue of consistency with the 'step-aside' rule to which the party agreed last year.

Many ANC supporters view that as the worst of all possible worlds and destabilising the leadership of the party further. Added to that, Mabuza isn't a very popular figure in the party as last month's branch nominations showed.

The longer Ramaphosa can drag out the process, the more he can use his incumbency to bolster his position within the party. ANC delegates will also consider electoral calculations – that Ramaphosa remains more popular than his party – and might serve their interests best if they keep him in place until the 2024 elections.

But that looks an age away. This week he will be fighting for his survival day by day.



Related Articles

Unhealthy (II)

The row over the future of Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang's future is now a battle between African National Congress factions ahead of December's leadership elections.


Business beyond borders

The Zuma government's foreign policy will be more about commerce than high-minded diplomacy

The appointment of the inexperienced Maite Nkoana-Mashabane as Foreign Minister in the new African National Congress (ANC) government suggests that President Jacob Zuma will dominate foreign policy, with...


Zuma’s presidential primary

Claims of corruption and nepotism are weakening the ANC’s position ahead of key local elections

For once, local government elections could change national politics. The municipal polls next month will be a critical test for President Jacob Zuma and the African National Congress....


ANC slumps to record low as voters stay away

Losing ground to new parties and independents, the two biggest parties are forced into coalition talks as political landscape changes

The African National Congress's (ANC) share of the national vote fell to 46% in the local elections with almost all the ballots counted by the evening of 3...