PREVIEW
Creditors and party patrons could derail promises to shrink the state and cut taxes while holding back the 24-hour economy plan
On 7 January, thousands of Ghanaians thronged Black Star Square in central Accra for John Dramani Mahama’s ‘second coming’, as many were calling his inauguration and return to the presidency. Out of power for eight years, Mahama now insists he has the formula to fix Ghana’s sluggish economy, stark inequality, and corruption.
Enough people were convinced to give him 57% of the vote in the 7 December elections and his National Democratic Congress (NDC) won an even bigger margin in parliament. He promises to start work immediately to restore fiscal stability and make radical constitutional changes.
To implement his headline economic pledge – to create a 24-hour economy – Mahama has appointed Augustus ‘Goosie’ Tanoh, whose political career dates back 40 years to the era of Flight Lieutenant Jerry John Rawlings’s government.
Mahama’s honeymoon will be short. Within his first 120 days, he plans to form a slimmed down administration of 60 ministers (the outgoing government had more than 100). Mahama also intends to abolish the outgoing New Patriotic Party’s ‘draconian taxes’, including the electronic transactions levy, Covid-19 levy, a 10% levy on gambling winnings and the emissions levy.
Civic groups welcome his promise of a lean government and have made some proposals. For instance, the convener of civic campaign #FixTheCountry, Oliver Barker-Vormawor, suggests the ministries of national security and interior should be combined, as should those of works and housing, transportation, and aviation.
But Mahama’s plans for downsized government are being challenged by those NDC backers seeking ministerial posts and directorships of state-owned enterprises. Several of the new government’s key figures are already in place. Long-time loyalist and now Chief of Staff Julius Debrah is expected to play an outsize role in Mahama’s office.
Led by former Interior Minister Prosper Bani, Mahama’s security team will include several figures from his first term: former Chief of Defence Staff Lieutenant-General Augustine Blay, former Security Minister Kofi Totobi Quakyi and former Security Coordinator Larry Gbevlo-Lartey.
Mahama’s limiting ministers to 60 shouldn’t be that onerous. But he will have to change some political conventions. The President can reward allies and loyalist in other ways, says Bright Simons of the Imani Centre: ‘Ghana’s permissive constitution grants the president appointment powers for thousands of public sector roles. There is no bar to the number of presidential staff that may be appointed. Nor to the slate of special assistants for Ministers.’
In the absence of innovative revenue-raising measures, Mahama’s promise to abolish multiple taxes within his first 100 days may come up against tough revenue targets and the government’s obligations to creditors. So may his promise to remove some academic fees. One of his chief advisors on economic policy will be Cassiel Ato Forson, a former Deputy Finance Minister.
The results of two parliamentary elections are still outstanding following the NPP’s application to the High Court for the Electoral Commission (EC) to re-collate votes in some constituencies. Provisional results gave the NDC two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, which meant the NDC should have the votes to push through radical constitutional changes. Even with a simple majority, the NDC will be able to approve key ministerial appointments and major deals involving minerals and other natural resources.
Corruption promise
Mahama campaigned on a promise to investigate corruption, including the US$1.7 billion of misappropriated Covid-19 funds, the Agyapa gold plan and the collapse of indigenous Ghanaian banks and financial institutions at a reported cost of 25bn cedi ($1.7bn). As part of Operation Recover All Loot (ORAL), Mahama has set up a high-powered five-member committee to investigate suspected corruption under Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo’s administration. It comprises Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa (former Deputy Foreign Affairs and Education Minister), Daniel Domelevo (former Auditor-General), Nathaniel Kofi Boakye (retired police commissioner), Martin Kpebu (a private legal practitioner), and Raymond Archer (an investigative journalist).
On 18 December, the Supreme Court dismissed two separate cases challenging the legality of the controversial Human Rights and Ghanaian Family Values Bill, widely known as the ‘anti-gay’ bill, which was approved in February. Outgoing President Akufo-Addo had refused to sign the bill into law, citing pending judicial proceedings against it. Ahead of the December polls, Mahama had expressed his opposition to LGBTQ+ rights but did not indicate whether he would sign the bill.
He will have no electoral incentives to sign it if the bill is presented and approved by parliament again, although his party is running its own hardline crusade against same-sex relationships, thinking it’s a ‘weak spot’ for the NPP. The Supreme Court may save Mahama – who is seen as liberal overseas – having to make an awkward choice. Unless the anti-gay bill is accompanied by an assessment of its fiscal costs, the Court can ultimately throw it out as unconstitutional.
The frequent power outages (dumsor) under the outgoing government are likely to persist until Mahama’s administration secures funds to settle a debt of $2.4bn owed to independent power producers. That debt excludes $1.5bn owed to Sunon Asogli Power Ghana Ltd, which suspended operations at its 560MW gas-fired power plant last year over the issue. According to the Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP), a think tank in Accra, the power sector ‘faces persistent financial inefficiencies and mounting debts, accumulating around $1bn annually.’ To try to address the situation, analysts say the NDC administration is likely to increase utility tariffs. The Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), the state company responsible for distribution, is struggling to generate enough revenue. It will continue its aggressive debt recovery exercise in 2025. Most delinquent debtors are in the government departments.
Economic outlook
After Ghana’s debt restructuring, the IMF predicts its economy will grow by 4.4% in 2025, up from 2.8% in 2024, driven by oil, gold mining, and services. The African Development Bank projects 4.3% growth. Inflation is expected to fall between 8% and 11% by the end of 2025. But the Bank of Ghana will keep interest rates high in the interim. The cedi will face pressure in 2025, with a forecasted exchange rate of 15-17 cedi per dollar by the end of the year.
This is due to Ghana’s import dependence and dollar-denominated debt repayments.
PUTTING THE CHIEF JUSTICE IN THE DOCK
On 17 December, activist and legal academic Stephen Kwaku Asare petitioned the President to remove Chief Justice Gertrude Torkornoo for alleged misbehaviour and incompetence.
In focus is Torkornoo’s practice of requesting the President to appoint specific judges and later presenting them for the Judicial Council’s approval. The petitioner argues that this subverts the constitutional order and means the Judicial Council and President are merely rubber-stamping her selections. The petitioner also wants Torkornoo removed for alleged improper interference with judicial panels.
The constitutional process for removing the Chief Justice requires the President to first make a prima facie determination for the petition to go forward. Afterwards, the President, on the advice of the Council of State, constitutes a committee consisting of two justices of the Supreme Court and three other persons. The committee investigates and recommends to the President whether the Chief Justice ought to be removed. Lawyers in Accra say the petition are credible but think her judicial peers will help protect the Chief Justice.
Mahama may try to move the petition forward. He and the NDC have accused outgoing President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of packing the Supreme Court. Currently, only two judges on the 15-judge court were appointed by a president other than Akufo-Addo. And the outcomes of many politically charged cases handled by the Supreme Court have gone against the NDC. That has fueleds accusations of anti-NDC hostility by the court and, in particular, Chief Justice Torkornoo, who selects the panel of judges for each case.
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