Jump to navigation

Burkina Faso

Sahel’s juntas challenge western miners in geopolitical gold rush

General Abdourahamane Tiani, Gen Assimi Goïta and Captain Ibrahim Traoré July 2024. Pic: @GoitaAssimi
General Abdourahamane Tiani, Gen Assimi Goïta and Captain Ibrahim Traoré July 2024. Pic: @GoitaAssimi

The fight over one of the world’s biggest gold mines points to the changing balance of power in the region

The stand-off between General Assimi Goïta’s military regime and Canada’s Barrick Gold has reached a critical point with the mining conglomerate suspending work at the Loulou-Gounkoto complex after the government used military helicopters to seize more than three tonnes of gold, worth around US$245 million on 11 January. Loulou-Gounkoto, 300 kilometres west of Bamako, is one of the world’s biggest gold mines in which Mali has 20% of the equity and Barrick has 80%. After increasing last year by 27%, gold prices are over US$2,700 an ounce. The Bank of America forecasts they could hit an unprecedented $3,000 this year.


Washington’s sanctions block Hemeti’s war message

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ and President William Ruto, January 2024. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ and President William Ruto, January 2024. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Torn between ties to the US and the UAE, Kenyan officials banned a press conference by the RSF militia in Nairobi

The last-minute cancellation of a press conference in Nairobi on 13 January by senior officials in the Rapid Support Forces suggests that its commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo...


Policy and leadership change top the AU agenda

Flag of African Union. Pic: Premium Collection / stock.adobe.com
Flag of African Union. Pic: Premium Collection / stock.adobe.com

More wars are being fought on the continent than at any point in the last eighty years

When they arrive in Addis Ababa for the African Union summit in February, African leaders will have to make some stark choices as they step-up efforts to tackle...

READ FOR FREE

Merger or bust for the opposition

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The challenge is clear – form an alliance or risk leaving President Tinubu as the frontrunner in the 2027 elections

With electioneering expected to start in 2026, this year will test the opposition’s resolve to form a mega party that could unseat President Bola Tinubu and his All...


Mahama may struggle to walk the talk

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Creditors and party patrons could derail promises to shrink the state and cut taxes while holding back the 24-hour economy plan

On 7 January, thousands of Ghanaians thronged Black Star Square in central Accra for John Dramani Mahama’s ‘second coming’, as many were calling his inauguration and return to...

READ FOR FREE

Ruto prioritises coalition-building as his re-election ticket

William Ruto signing parliamentary bills, December 2024. With John Mbadi, Musalia Mudavadi and others. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto signing parliamentary bills, December 2024. With John Mbadi, Musalia Mudavadi and others. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Six months after the Gen Z protests forced him to sack his cabinet and drop a finance bill, the President wants to befriend old rivals

After a year of turmoil when he appeared to be in office but not in power, President William Ruto wants to focus on building a new coalition to...


Political marriage holds together

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Disunity among leftists, trade unionists and the populists of the EFF and MK has weakened opposition to the centrist GNU

Cyril Ramaphosa’s grand political coalition has survived its first six months with modestly rising investment levels, lower inflation, and energy reforms. As the first African country to chair...


Mnangagwa hunkers down

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The president’s failure to rein in grand corruption and his business allies is weakening the economy further and makes a political implosion more likely

The failure to sustain the launch of Zimbabwe’s latest local currency – and the macro-economic consequences of that – will haunt the country and Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency in...


Samia’s liberal dawn is eclipsed

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Nobody expects the current wave of repression to end before the election in October because the Magufulistas have recaptured the ruling party

The Tanzanian polity is riven by speculation about how and why the era of reconciliation and openness ushered in by President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been replaced by...


Nervy start to election season

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

An unpredictable battle between ex-presidents looms in September as the last nail is driven into the coffin of the Anti-Corruption Bureau

Malawi’s electoral process got off to an uncertain start as the opposition demanded the resignation of Malawi Electoral Commission chair Judge Annabel Mtalimanja and took to the streets...


Abiy soldiers on

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Abiy Ahmed at the BRICS Summit 2024. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Abiy Ahmed at the BRICS Summit 2024. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Despite regional setbacks and domestic insurgencies, the Prime Minister is set to pursue his vision of a modernised Ethiopia using military means

In mid-December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brokered a deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia. Under strong Turkish pressure –...


Region will be key in bid to end war

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Without serious pressure on the war’s sponsors, the fighting could drag on, perhaps leading to national partition

After 20 months of fighting, the dynamics of Sudan’s war are changing. Clashes in many of the most populated areas are slowing down because sides are trying to...


Biya to defy critics and run again

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

As the 91-year-old president prepares to run for an eighth term in October, speculation is intensifying about how the regime ends

Despite mounting calls for Paul Biya to end his 42-year-long reign, the Cameroonian president intends to run again this year, hoping to lead the Central African nation for...


President Tinubu’s oil optimism doesn’t add up, yet

Local companies taking over onshore production and international offshore plays won’t plug the revenue holes

Widespread scepticism greeted President Bola Tinubu’s ‘Budget of Restoration’ when he presented it to the National Assembly on 18 December – mainly due to doubts about the oil...


Moscow helps Obiang’s dynastic succession plan

Pic: @teonguema
Pic: @teonguema

Security concerns in Central Africa have brought Presidents Obiang and Putin into a closer embrace

Restive militaries, recurring financial crises and transitions under two ageing authoritarian leaders are pressuring governments in Central Africa. These developments both pose threats and offer opportunities to Russia....


Dropping France, Mahamat Kaka tilts to Turkey and the UAE

Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno ‘Kaka’. Pic: @GmahamatIdi
Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno ‘Kaka’. Pic: @GmahamatIdi

Ndjamena’s strategic switch helps Abu Dhabi more than Russia for now

Taking Paris by surprise on 20 December, the Chadian government ordered French troops to leave the country by the end of January, marking a final rupture after some...


Mahama lacks time to turn his promised reset into reality

President-elect Mahama meets President Akufo-Addo to discuss the transition process, 11 December 2024. Pic: @JDMahama
President-elect Mahama meets President Akufo-Addo to discuss the transition process, 11 December 2024. Pic: @JDMahama

Pledging a lean and accountable government, the new President says he will end nuisance taxes but keep the IMF reform programme on track


SWAPO bucks the regional trend

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Pic: @VPSWAPO
Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Pic: @VPSWAPO

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, the ruling party’s first female presidential candidate, now has to deliver on her jobs promise


Mahama leads a decisive NDC comeback

Ghana presidential election held on 7 December, 2024. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Ghana presidential election held on 7 December, 2024. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Vice-President Bawumia concedes early to ‘preserve the peace of our country’ amid sharpening polarisation


The Sahel-exit splits open Ecowas

Ecowas sixty-sixth ordinary session, 15 December 2024, Abuja, Nigeria. Pic: @ecowas_cedeao
Ecowas sixty-sixth ordinary session, 15 December 2024, Abuja, Nigeria. Pic: @ecowas_cedeao

Nigeria’s Tinubu presides over the regional bloc’s worst ever crisis


Tinubu prepares to present 2025 budget

Nigeria: Naira weakens, subsidies fall, revenues improve. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Nigeria: Naira weakens, subsidies fall, revenues improve. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Foreign exchange and tax reforms are praised by international banks but most Nigerians are yet to see the benefits

READ FOR FREE

New alliances on shaky ground

Hassan Joho and William Ruto at State House Nairobi. Pic: @HassanAliJoho
Hassan Joho and William Ruto at State House Nairobi. Pic: @HassanAliJoho

The putative opposition is enjoying its five seats in government but is hedging its bets before committing to a formal coalition with Ruto