BURKINA FASOMALINIGERMINING Sahel’s juntas challenge western miners in geopolitical gold rush 17th January 2025 General Abdourahamane Tiani, Gen Assimi Goïta and Captain Ibrahim Traoré July 2024. Pic: @GoitaAssimi The fight over one of the world’s biggest gold mines points to the changing balance of power in the region The stand-off between General Assimi Goïta’s military regime and Canada’s Barrick Gold has reached a critical point with the mining conglomerate suspending work at the Loulou-Gounkoto complex after the government used military helicopters to seize more than three tonnes of gold, worth around US$245 million on 11 January. Loulou-Gounkoto, 300 kilometres west of Bamako, is one of the world’s biggest gold mines in which Mali has 20% of the equity and Barrick has 80%. After increasing last year by 27%, gold prices are over US$2,700 an ounce. The Bank of America forecasts they could hit an unprecedented $3,000 this year.
SUDANUNITED ARAB EMIRATES Washington’s sanctions block Hemeti’s war message 15th January 2025 General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ and President William Ruto, January 2024. Pic: @WilliamsRuto Torn between ties to the US and the UAE, Kenyan officials banned a press conference by the RSF militia in Nairobi The last-minute cancellation of a press conference in Nairobi on 13 January by senior officials in the Rapid Support Forces suggests that its commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo...
UNITED STATESAFRICAUNITED NATIONSFINANCE New front opens in global tax war as Trump moves in 13th January 2025 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Pic: Florence Piot / stock.adobe.com Washington may penalise states applying OECD tax rules on multinationals Fights over new rules to cut corporate tax avoidance and illicit financial flows are intensifying weeks ahead of the first meeting of a new UN convention to set...
AFRICA IN 2025 Policy and leadership change top the AU agenda 10th January 2025 Flag of African Union. Pic: Premium Collection / stock.adobe.com More wars are being fought on the continent than at any point in the last eighty years When they arrive in Addis Ababa for the African Union summit in February, African leaders will have to make some stark choices as they step-up efforts to tackle... READ FOR FREE
NIGERIAAFRICA IN 2025 Merger or bust for the opposition 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 The challenge is clear – form an alliance or risk leaving President Tinubu as the frontrunner in the 2027 elections With electioneering expected to start in 2026, this year will test the opposition’s resolve to form a mega party that could unseat President Bola Tinubu and his All...
GHANAAFRICA IN 2025 Mahama may struggle to walk the talk 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Creditors and party patrons could derail promises to shrink the state and cut taxes while holding back the 24-hour economy plan On 7 January, thousands of Ghanaians thronged Black Star Square in central Accra for John Dramani Mahama’s ‘second coming’, as many were calling his inauguration and return to... READ FOR FREE
KENYAAFRICA IN 2025 Ruto prioritises coalition-building as his re-election ticket 6th January 2025 William Ruto signing parliamentary bills, December 2024. With John Mbadi, Musalia Mudavadi and others. Pic: @WilliamsRuto Six months after the Gen Z protests forced him to sack his cabinet and drop a finance bill, the President wants to befriend old rivals After a year of turmoil when he appeared to be in office but not in power, President William Ruto wants to focus on building a new coalition to...
SOUTH AFRICAAFRICA IN 2025 Political marriage holds together 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Disunity among leftists, trade unionists and the populists of the EFF and MK has weakened opposition to the centrist GNU Cyril Ramaphosa’s grand political coalition has survived its first six months with modestly rising investment levels, lower inflation, and energy reforms. As the first African country to chair...
ZIMBABWEAFRICA IN 2025 Mnangagwa hunkers down 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 The president’s failure to rein in grand corruption and his business allies is weakening the economy further and makes a political implosion more likely The failure to sustain the launch of Zimbabwe’s latest local currency – and the macro-economic consequences of that – will haunt the country and Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency in...
TANZANIAAFRICA IN 2025 Samia’s liberal dawn is eclipsed 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Nobody expects the current wave of repression to end before the election in October because the Magufulistas have recaptured the ruling party The Tanzanian polity is riven by speculation about how and why the era of reconciliation and openness ushered in by President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been replaced by...
MALAWIAFRICA IN 2025 Nervy start to election season 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 An unpredictable battle between ex-presidents looms in September as the last nail is driven into the coffin of the Anti-Corruption Bureau Malawi’s electoral process got off to an uncertain start as the opposition demanded the resignation of Malawi Electoral Commission chair Judge Annabel Mtalimanja and took to the streets...
ETHIOPIAAFRICA IN 2025 Abiy soldiers on 8th January 2025 Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Abiy Ahmed at the BRICS Summit 2024. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli Despite regional setbacks and domestic insurgencies, the Prime Minister is set to pursue his vision of a modernised Ethiopia using military means In mid-December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brokered a deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia. Under strong Turkish pressure –...
SUDANAFRICA IN 2025 Region will be key in bid to end war 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Without serious pressure on the war’s sponsors, the fighting could drag on, perhaps leading to national partition After 20 months of fighting, the dynamics of Sudan’s war are changing. Clashes in many of the most populated areas are slowing down because sides are trying to...
CAMEROONAFRICA IN 2025 Biya to defy critics and run again 10th January 2025 Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 As the 91-year-old president prepares to run for an eighth term in October, speculation is intensifying about how the regime ends Despite mounting calls for Paul Biya to end his 42-year-long reign, the Cameroonian president intends to run again this year, hoping to lead the Central African nation for...
NIGERIA President Tinubu’s oil optimism doesn’t add up, yet 3rd January 2025 Local companies taking over onshore production and international offshore plays won’t plug the revenue holes Widespread scepticism greeted President Bola Tinubu’s ‘Budget of Restoration’ when he presented it to the National Assembly on 18 December – mainly due to doubts about the oil...
EQUATORIAL GUINEARUSSIA Moscow helps Obiang’s dynastic succession plan 3rd January 2025 Pic: @teonguema Security concerns in Central Africa have brought Presidents Obiang and Putin into a closer embrace Restive militaries, recurring financial crises and transitions under two ageing authoritarian leaders are pressuring governments in Central Africa. These developments both pose threats and offer opportunities to Russia....
CHADFRANCE Dropping France, Mahamat Kaka tilts to Turkey and the UAE 31st December 2024 Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno ‘Kaka’. Pic: @GmahamatIdi Ndjamena’s strategic switch helps Abu Dhabi more than Russia for now Taking Paris by surprise on 20 December, the Chadian government ordered French troops to leave the country by the end of January, marking a final rupture after some...
CONGO-KINSHASARUSSIA Wagner Group is struggling to sell arms to Tshisekedi 24th December 2024 Pic: @FelixUdps Kinshasa’s closer business ties with the US are sidelining Moscow’s military offers Congolese businessmen close to President Félix Tshisekedi are trying to negotiate a regime security, and arms deal between Kinshasa and the remnants of the Wagner Group, now under...
MOZAMBIQUEUNITED STATES TotalEnergies makes a dash for the US gas cash 20th December 2024 Pic: totalenergies.com Before Trump takes over in Washington, the French oil company wants the US export bank to back its gas export plan
GHANA Mahama lacks time to turn his promised reset into reality 12th December 2024 President-elect Mahama meets President Akufo-Addo to discuss the transition process, 11 December 2024. Pic: @JDMahama Pledging a lean and accountable government, the new President says he will end nuisance taxes but keep the IMF reform programme on track
NIGERIA Reforms spark a national tax revolt 12th December 2024 Pic: @officialABAT State governors and federal lawmakers oppose plans to centralise revenue collection in a new agency in Abuja
NAMIBIA SWAPO bucks the regional trend 12th December 2024 Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Pic: @VPSWAPO Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, the ruling party’s first female presidential candidate, now has to deliver on her jobs promise
FRANCEAFRICA Macron tilts to Anglophone Africa after Sahelian exits 3rd December 2024 President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to Paris, 28-29 November. Pic: @officialABAT After a spate of reverses in the region, the French President is boosting ties with Ghana and Nigeria
MOZAMBIQUE Frelimo falters as a people’s uprising gathers steam 19th December 2024 Albino José Sibia ‘Mano Shottas’ Anger is rising as civic activists say police have killed over 130 protestors and the Constitutional Council prepares to rule on disputed election READ FOR FREE
GHANA Mahama leads a decisive NDC comeback 9th December 2024 Ghana presidential election held on 7 December, 2024. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024 Vice-President Bawumia concedes early to ‘preserve the peace of our country’ amid sharpening polarisation
CAMEROON Chantal Biya gains ground as an old ally falls 11th December 2024 The Biyas. Pic: @ChantalBIYA_Cmr After a heated argument with the First Lady, Rear-Admiral Joseph Fouda was drummed out of the presidency accused of fraud
GABON General Oligui Nguema shows how to run a coup 5th December 2024 Pic: @oliguinguema The putschist general may stay in power after a constitutional change allows him to stand in next year’s elections
BELGIUMWHO'S WHO In the news: Didier Reynders and Belge-Afrique 12th December 2024 Didier Reynders. Pic: @dreynders
WEST AFRICA The Sahel-exit splits open Ecowas 18th December 2024 Ecowas sixty-sixth ordinary session, 15 December 2024, Abuja, Nigeria. Pic: @ecowas_cedeao Nigeria’s Tinubu presides over the regional bloc’s worst ever crisis
NIGERIA Tinubu prepares to present 2025 budget 12th December 2024 Nigeria: Naira weakens, subsidies fall, revenues improve. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024 Foreign exchange and tax reforms are praised by international banks but most Nigerians are yet to see the benefits READ FOR FREE
KENYA New alliances on shaky ground 12th December 2024 Hassan Joho and William Ruto at State House Nairobi. Pic: @HassanAliJoho The putative opposition is enjoying its five seats in government but is hedging its bets before committing to a formal coalition with Ruto
ZIMBABWE As army dissent grows, Mnangagwa appoints loyalist as security minister 4th December 2024 Lovemore Matuke. Pic: @HonMatuke Lovemore Matuke, who led Mnangagwa’s campaign for a third term, is the new spy chief and security coordinator
EUROPEAN UNIONAFRICA Brussels gets a new Africa corps 12th December 2024 Kaja Kallas. Pic: @kajakallas