SOMALIA Hassan Sheikh takes poll position 27th November 2025 Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Pic: @HassanSMohamud The President hopes he can remain in power by winning a ‘one person one vote’ election next year, or get his term extended if delays persist President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strengthened his position in the run-up to the presidential election next year by skilfully dividing the opposition. He is sticking with his call for a 'one person one vote', based on a flawed electoral roll, and appears to be maintaining his political momentum at the expense of less astute rivals. The official electoral agenda is for district-level elections to be followed by federal parliamentary elections in each Federal Member State two months later. These will be followed by the election of the federal President two months after that.
AFRICAUNITED NATIONSCLIMATE CHANGEG20 Johannesburg and Belém summits send defiant message to Trump 26th November 2025 Pic: @g20org Multilateralism survived and African leaders got some progress on debt, minerals and climate change at the G20 and the COP30 Winning a sort of victory in the teeth of United States opposition, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa rescued Africa’s first G20 on 22-23 November, pushing through a leaders’...
ERITREAETHIOPIA The fight for the Red Sea escalates 21st November 2025 THE FIGHT FOR THE RED SEA: Ethiopia's maritime ambitions clash with Eritrea's hard-fought sovereignty. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Commercial interests, naval ambitions and shifting alliances are raising the risk of war – as regional states pick sides Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that Ethiopia must secure direct access to the Red Sea. In his October address to parliament, he called it ‘inevitable’, citing...
CHADSUDAN Abu Dhabi pressures Mahamat Kaka 21st November 2025 Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno receives quadripartite delegation on Sudan crisis, Rome, October 2025. Pic: mahamatidrissdeby.td The RSF’s seizure of El Fasher exposed the fragility of the Ndjamena regime and its dependence on United Arab Emirates funding The seizure of El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 October prompted louder calls from United States and European Union politicians for sanctions against the...
SOUTH SUDAN Spinning out of control 21st November 2025 Salva Kiir Mayardit, November 2025. Pic: Office of the President – Republic of South Sudan The dismissal of Salva Kiir’s closest ally in a chaotic reshuffle has left him looking increasingly isolated With the economy racing downhill, the peace process ever more fragile and the political landscape dominated by the treason trial of former First Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon...
NIGERIA Tinubu pushes the multi-party system over a cliff 21st November 2025 People’s Democratic Party headquarters sealed off behind a barbed wire cordon Instead of attacking the government on insecurity and economic woes, the opposition wastes its energy on factional battles Two resonant images sum up the decline and fall of multi-party politics in Nigeria. The first is of the headquarters of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) at its...
UGANDA Museveni looks to an oil boost 21st November 2025 Uganda: Exports and growth rise. Debt and deficit worsen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Growth and exports climb ahead of national elections, as the government pins its hopes on extractive revenues President Yoweri Museveni and his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party approach January’s national elections with the National Unity Platform (NUP) opposition targeting his record on education, health...
SOUTH AFRICA Ramokgopa takes a two trillion rand gamble on gas 19th November 2025 SOUTH AFRICA'S GAS FIELDS: Facing legal, political and environmental battles. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Legal setbacks, stalled offshore projects and a looming supply crisis threaten both industry and climate targets The Integrated Resource Plan pushed through cabinet by Minister for Energy and Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa last month is ambitious in scope and financing – envisaging a 2.23 trillion...
CAMEROON Biya sworn in as resistance ebbs 18th November 2025 Paul Biya. Pic: @presidentpaulbiya With Tchiroma in exile and state repression in full flow the pendulum has swung back to the state as oppositionists ponder resignation or armed struggle The opposition, fixed on the exiled figure of Issa Tchiroma Bakary, is beginning to lose heart after President Paul Biya was sworn in for his eighth term on...
ETHIOPIA Fano’s battlefield gains show Abiy’s shaky grip on the regions 14th November 2025 Captured Ethiopian Federal Forces. Pic: @martinplaut Federal government is pushed back hard as opposition forces in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray form a loose anti-regime front, redrawing the political map in the Horn After recent victories by insurgents in Amhara, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has been showing signs of the strain as its opponents join forces and launch heavier challenges....
EUROPEAN UNIONAFRICAN UNION Brussels pushes Global Gateway to rival US-China deal-making 13th November 2025 G20-Africa High-Level Dialogue on Debt Sustainability, Cost of Capital, and Financing Reforms hosted by the African Union, 10 November 2025, Addis Ababa. Pic: @APRMorg Eurocrats will argue for more transactional policies at the Luanda summit to secure critical minerals. But can the EU’s cash match its ambitions? Africa Union and European Union leaders insist they want to ratchet up economic security ties ahead of their two-day summit starting in Angola on 25 November, just after...
MOZAMBIQUEUNITED STATESFRANCE President Chapo returns empty-handed from Houston 12th November 2025 Daniel Chapo meets JD Vance. Pic: daniel_chapo_oficial ExxonMobil won’t recommit to its gas export scheme until Maputo agrees resumption terms with TotalEnergies Over US$50 billion of gas investments are riding on the outcome of a financial fight between President Daniel Chapo’s government and France’s TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné. The...
TANZANIA The power behind Samia’s throne 21st November 2025 Emmanuel Nchimbi, Samia Suluhu Hassan, Mwigulu Nchemba. Pic: FB Mwigulu Nchemba FB The technocrat and the party hack – that is the early assessment of new Prime Minister Mwigulu Nchemba and Vice-President Emmanuel Nchimbi, the two men tasked with fronting...
KENYAEUROPEAN UNION Chemicals in court 21st November 2025 Pic: saiyood / stock.adobe.com At the Environment and Land Court in Nairobi on 13 November, justices began hearing a landmark lawsuit seeking to ban multinational manufacturers and local distributors from placing toxic...
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLICBELGIUMFRANCE Hard labour 21st November 2025 Joseph Figueira Martin Arrested on 26 May 2024 in Zémio, in the south-east of the country, by Wagner paramilitaries, Joseph Figueira Martin was beaten and tortured before being imprisoned at Camp...
TANZANIA Cloud of blood and doubt hangs over Hassan’s victory 6th November 2025 Fires in the streets of Dar es Salaam Marked by eerie calm and deadly force, the vote unfolded under an internet shutdown – amid fear and fraud
NIGERIA Tinubu’s policy paradox 7th November 2025 NIGERIA: GROWTH AND REVENUES UP, BUT HOUSEHOLDS STRUGGLE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Food prices, shrinking purchasing power and insecurity underscore the disconnect between praise for reforms and everyday hardship
CAMEROON The contest reaches flashpoint 3rd November 2025 Issa Tchiroma Bakary The President and his challenger marshal their forces while the loyalty of the security forces remains in the balance
ZIMBABWE ZANU-PF backs Mnangagwa’s 2030 power bid amid rising tensions 28th October 2025 The SAPES conference room exterior Protests grow at nepotism and corruption in the ruling clique as the economy staggers on despite the mining upturn
CÔTE D'IVOIRE Opposition split after Ouattara win 7th November 2025 Alassane Ouattara. Pic: @AOuattara_PRCI
SUDAN Burhan’s leadership in question after Darfur retreat 7th November 2025 SUDAN: After brutal siege of El Fasher, the RSF targets El Obeid. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 The fall of El Fasher exposes international failures as the RSF kills thousands of civilians with impunity
SOUTH AFRICA Warning lights as G20 looms 7th November 2025 G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, Washington DC, October 2025. Pic: @g20org Business leaders sound the alarm over the country’s economic drift, despite signs of fiscal recovery
EGYPTLIBYATURKEYGREECE Athens offers Benghazi a deal to end Mediterranean feud 31st October 2025 LIBYA-GREECE MARITIME DISPUTE: Competing claims over oil exploration. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Premier Mitsotakis wants to defuse rival blocs and stop a Libyan-Turkish pact scooping up oil rights in the Mediterranean
CAMEROON Improbable dissident: Issa Tchiroma Bakary 7th November 2025 Issa Tchiroma Bakary. Pic: itb_officiel
NIGERIASAHEL Tinubu courts juntas as Ecowas resets security ties 7th November 2025 NIGERIA AND THE SAHEL: Tinubu tries to mend fences with the juntas. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Abuja is forging fresh partnerships as jihadist violence spreads and trust frays in the wake of military rule
KENYA Ruto goes west as ODM ponders life after Raila 5th November 2025 Oburu Oginga. Pic: @DrOburu_O While the Orange Democratic Movement works out its future, President Ruto is shoring up his support in its heartlands
EUROPEAN UNIONAFRICAN UNIONCLIMATE CHANGE Brussels backs down on forest laws again 29th October 2025 Cocoa pods. Pic: ND STOCK/AI/stock.adobe.com The EU’s anti-deforestation laws show how badly drafted climate policy can alienate everyone – farmers, traders and consumers
EAST AFRICA Fields of expensive dreams 7th November 2025 Talanta Stadium, Nairobi, under construction