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Kenya

After Odinga, opposition politicians jostle for position

Bidding farewell to Raila Odinga, Bondo, 19 October 2025. Pic: @edwinsifuna

A generational battle to decide who succeeds the veteran leader may also seal the fate of President William Ruto’s government

Until the death of Raila Amolo Odinga from a heart attack on 15 October, President William Samoei Ruto’s path to re-election in August 2027 had seemed clear: having turned his back on the central Mount Kenya region, he would need Odinga to deliver his Western and Coastal support bases under a pact offering Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) a string of key ministries and perhaps the deputy presidency.

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Crisis in the capital

Johnson Sakaja. Pic: @SakajaJohnson

Unable to keep the streets clean, Johnson Sakaja is the latest victim of the Nairobi governor curse

In a country where the power of incumbency is so strong, it is a striking anomaly that no Nairobi governor has secured a second term since devolution became...


Gen Z redraws the power map

Colonel Michael Randrianirina is sworn in.
Colonel Michael Randrianirina is sworn in.

Mass demonstrations prompted President Andry Rajoelina’s removal from power. Now the military is back in the driving seat

It was the military’s backing for the Gen Z protests against President Andry Rajoelina that forced him to flee aboard a French military jet on 12 October. At...


Debt shadows growth as Africa faces fiscal reckoning

AFRICA: DEFICITS IMPROVING, BUT DEBT SERVICE STILL BITES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
AFRICA: DEFICITS IMPROVING, BUT DEBT SERVICE STILL BITES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Higher growth forecasts have to be set against falling per capita incomes, a monumental job creation challenge, and failure to agree on debt restructuring

As the International Monetary Fund and World Bank held their Annual Meetings from 13-18 October in Washington DC, persistent fears over global economic risks were tempered by relief...


Jihadists tighten their stranglehold

MALI CRISIS: How insurgents are targeting the trade routes. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

With critical gold mines in the Kayes region already under threat, the militants are now targeting critical commercial axes

After assaulting the main western trade corridor to Bamako from Dakar last month, jihadist fighters have now extended their campaign to the key southern artery from Abidjan as...


The Tinubu-Shell trade-off behind a $7.5 billion investment

Pic: @Shell_Nigeria
Pic: @Shell_Nigeria

UN experts warn that international oil companies’ opaque sales to local consortia flout environmental and human rights laws

The tortuous bargaining between international oil companies – Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil – and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government over new investments has hit a succession of legal...


To the victor the spoiled ballot

Issa Tchiroma Bakary. Pic: itb_officiel

Issa Tchiroma Bakary has declared himself the presidential election winner but few doubt that Paul Biya will ultimately prevail through electoral fraud

Citizens of Cameroon's main conurbations are bracing themselves as unrest spreads in the wake of the efforts by President Paul Biya and his ruling Rassemblement Démocratique du Peuple...


Terror sets the tone for polling day

Humphrey Polepole. Pic: @hpoIepole
Humphrey Polepole. Pic: @hpoIepole

Security men guided by the President’s son are said to be behind the abductions and killings creating a climate of fear for the 29 October elections

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s calm, maternal image conceals a streak of ruthless determination to root out all political opposition to ensure her re-election, no matter what the human...


Opposition colossus Odinga dies, leaving succession crisis

Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga
Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga

Millions mourn a man who lost five presidential elections but changed the country, campaigning for political freedoms and constitutional reform

Raila Amolo Odinga, whose activism helped launch multi-party politics in Kenya and reformed the constitution after winning a national referendum, died on 15 October following a heart attack...


Coup plot or not

Brigadier General Tukur Gusau. Pic: @NigNavyToday
Brigadier General Tukur Gusau. Pic: @NigNavyToday

Mobile phones started buzzing on 17 October about a thwarted coup plot, fired up by a story on Sahara Reporters on the arrest of 16 officers ‘over issues...


The price of processing

Global Gateway Forum. Pic: @UrugwiroVillage
Global Gateway Forum. Pic: @UrugwiroVillage

Who will invest in local refining and processing of critical minerals was the question posed by African leaders at the Global Gateway Forum hosted by the European Union...


ZANU-PF succession fight goes public as schisms deepen

President Mnangagwa is welcomed by Vice-Presidents Constantino Chiwenga and Kembo Mohadi at the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport, September 2024. Pic: @ZANUPF_Official
President Mnangagwa is welcomed by Vice-Presidents Constantino Chiwenga and Kembo Mohadi at the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport, September 2024. Pic: @ZANUPF_Official

Vice-President Chiwenga accuses President Mnangagwa’s allies of looting US$3.2 billion from party coffers and demands arrests


Jihadist fighters advance as governments stall

AFRICA: MAJOR JIHADIST ATTACKS 2025. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
AFRICA: MAJOR JIHADIST ATTACKS 2025. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Al Shabaab tries to regain the initiative in Somalia, Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado is jolted by fresh attacks and the Sahel is the most lethal region


State capture threatens mining reforms

Winston Chitando. Pic: zim.gov.zw
Winston Chitando. Pic: zim.gov.zw

A long-delayed bill aims to modernise the mining industry but may entrench elite control due to legal ambiguities and weak oversight