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Ruto shifts from populism to authoritarianism

William Ruto, President of Kenya, at the U.S. Capitol
William Ruto, President of Kenya, at the U.S. Capitol. Credit: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Live News

The president’s pledge to end elite capture and patronage has been dropped for the ethnic identity politics which dominated the old one-party state

President William Ruto’s falling out with his core Mount Kenya constituency – followed by the impeachment of his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua – has become the defining crisis of his presidency. With two years until the August 2027 elections, his legitimacy rests on a fragile alliance with his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) rival, Raila Odinga. Ruto now appears intent on turning the Mount Kenya fallout into a wedge issue and central plank of his re-election campaign. Many fear that, 20 years after the calamitous 2007 polls, 2027 could mark another Kenyan annus horribilis.

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Gen Z protestors vie with old politics

Police patrol the streets ahead of Saba Saba demonstrations in Nakuru
Police patrol the streets ahead of Saba Saba demonstrations in Nakuru. Credit: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Live News

Former Chief Justice Maraga and veteran politician Musyoka are top contenders to lead the campaign against beleaguered President Ruto

With personal ratings stuck between 10 and 15%, few dispute that President William Ruto is toxically unpopular – especially among young Kenyans. Yet most expect him to be...


Buhari’s legacy and opposition alliance slow Tinubu’s bandwagon

NIGERIA’S FEDERATION: How the 36 state governments could shape the 2027 elections
NIGERIA’S FEDERATION: How the 36 state governments could shape the 2027 elections. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar sense a new chance but the odds are still stacked against them

Strategists in the ruling All Progressives Congress and sundry opposition parties are scurrying to adapt to the changing political conditions after the demise of Muhammadu Buhari at 82...


High hopes, little change

AFRICA: DEBT BURDEN MOUNTS, DEVELOPMENT FINANCE DECLINES
AFRICA: DEBT BURDEN MOUNTS, DEVELOPMENT FINANCE DECLINES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

After yet another UN summit, African governments see sparse progress on debt relief or global financial reform

The familiar sound of empty promises rang around Seville at the close of the latest UN summit on international financial reforms. Few delegates from developing nations trusted commitments...


Militias agree peace but risks stay high

Bangui. Arch by roundabout in the centre of town
Bangui. Arch by roundabout in the centre of town. Credit: Jenny Matthews, Alamy

A historic deal to agree peace between Bangui and all the rebel groups is announced, but at what cost and for how long?

On 4 July, Chad announced that a peace agreement had been reached between the Central African Republic government and the two main armed groups, which are mostly made...


President’s oil dream is in foreign hands

Workers are seen at the Kingfisher Oil Field in Kikuube, Uganda, on Jan. 24, 2023
Workers are seen at the Kingfisher Oil Field in Kikuube, Uganda, on Jan. 24, 2023. Credit: Hajarah Nalwadda/Xinhua/Alamy Live News

Museveni’s beloved pipeline and refinery project rides on uncertain finance from UAE and questions about China’s priorities

Uganda’s planned oil refinery at Hoima hinges its joint venture partner Alpha MBM Investments, a little-known United Arab Emirates company chaired by a minor member of the Dubai...


Unity government shaken as police chief blows the whistle

Senzo Mchunu
Senzo Mchunu. Credit: AfriPics.com, Alamy

After explosive claims of cartel-backed infiltration, Ramaphosa suspended key officials and launched a judicial inquiry but risks losing control of the coalition

On 6 July, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) police commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi accused Police Minister Senzo Mchunu and Deputy National Police Commissioner Shadrack Sibiya of colluding with criminal elements to...


Former enemies unite to take on Abiy Ahmed

Issayas Afewerki. Pic: @hawelti
Issayas Afewerki. Pic: @hawelti

Eritrea and the ruling party in Tigray forge an unlikely alliance against Addis Ababa

Never short of self-belief, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces the most serious challenge yet to his balancing of regional and national interests – Eritrean and Tigrayan leaders,...


Trump ‘cash for migrants’ playbook hits roadblocks in Africa

Donald Trump and Umaro Sissoco Embaló in the Oval Office, 9 July 2025. Pic: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok
Donald Trump and Umaro Sissoco Embaló in the Oval Office, 9 July 2025. Pic: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok

As the EU spends over US$9 billion on migration deals with African states, Washington is pushing its own plan

Opposition is mounting to efforts by US President Donald Trump’s administration to persuade African states to accept third-country deportees. Some governments such as Nigeria have openly rejected the...


Democracy, deferred

Gambia has failed again to enact a new constitution after parliament rejected a draft bill on 7 July – a move that clears the way for President Adama...


News maker: Buhari's contested legacy

From the tens of thousands of people who trekked to pay homage to the late military leader turned elected president to the digital warriors who fought over his...


Trump’s peace deal hinges on minerals, militias – and megawatts

CONGO-KINSHASA MINERAL-SECURITY DEAL: Hope at Ruzizi hydro, chaos at Rubaya coltan mine. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
CONGO-KINSHASA MINERAL-SECURITY DEAL: Hope at Ruzizi hydro, chaos at Rubaya coltan mine. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

A White House-brokered agreement promises regional calm and economic integration, but success depends on dislodging rebels and securing mining rights

Speaking at the White House on 27 June, during the signing of a new peace agreement by the Rwandan and Congolese foreign ministers, President Donald Trump declared that...

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Tagwirei riles ruling party rivals

Kudakwashe Tagwirei. Pic: @ZANUPF_Official

As Harare’s top oligarch edges into politics, senior ZANU-PF cadres push back – and opposition chief Chamisa prepares a comeback


Splits appear in Biya regime’s façade

Bello Bouba Maïgari and Akere Muna. Pic: @AkereMuna
Bello Bouba Maïgari and Akere Muna. Pic: @AkereMuna

Once-stalwart loyalists are breaking with the regime just as opposition strength swells ahead of the October elections. The President’s team is nervous


Politicians seek a way out of the impasse

SOMALIA'S POLITICAL CONSULTATION: Elections due next year as insurgency drags on. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SOMALIA'S POLITICAL CONSULTATION: Elections due next year as insurgency drags on. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

With Al Shabaab holding its own, the viability of next year’s elections diminishing, and donors in dismay, the constitution has moved centre stage


The deadly stalemate deepens

SUDAN'S DEVASTATING WAR DRAGS ON: Generals Burhan and Hemeti continue fighting as outsiders stage talks. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SUDAN'S DEVASTATING WAR DRAGS ON: Generals Burhan and Hemeti continue fighting as outsiders stage talks. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

As both sides escalate drone warfare backed by foreign patrons, civilians are trapped in a cycle of violence, revenge and economic devastation