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Published 21st February 2025

Vol 66 No 4

Gold is booming amid the geopolitical chaos

Africa's mineral reserves. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Africa's mineral reserves. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Political and economic risks are holding back countries hoping to benefit from a critical minerals boom

Africa’s gold miners, great and small, are reaping benefits from the mounting geopolitical chaos. The gold price, which surged 20% in 2024 due to escalating political risks, has risen another 10% since Donald Trump took over the United States presidency. Traders are spooked by the possibility of tariffs on US gold imports, inflation from the global trade war initiated by Trump, and a weakening US dollar. All signs indicate that the gold price, now at $3,000 an ounce, will continue to rise.

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The generals choose partition over peace

SUDAN: THE THREAT OF PARTITION The SAF consolidates in the Eastern Nile while the RSF dominates Darfur. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SUDAN: THE THREAT OF PARTITION The SAF consolidates in the Eastern Nile while the RSF dominates Darfur. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

General Burhan’s SAF has won back the eastern and central lands taken by the RSF but a deadly stalemate persists

The battle for control of Khartoum is raging. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al Burhan is fighting for control of what is left...

Tanks roll as Mnangagwa tries to extend his rule

Borrowdale Road, 19 February 2025. Pic: @maz_mai
Borrowdale Road, 19 February 2025. Pic: @maz_mai

The military officers who backed the coup against Mugabe are turning against his successor

On the morning of 19 February, Zimbabweans awoke to find videos on their social media feed of tanks rolling down the Borrowdale Road, in one of the plushest...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

With geopolitics in flux, alliances are shifting. United States President Donald Trump’s attacks on South Africa, including the suspension of government programmes, the boycott of its G20 presidency, and claims of ‘genocide’ against white farmers by Trump advisor Elon Musk have pushed Pretoria to embrace the European Union more closely. A few months ago, European Commission officials worried about South Africa’s ties with China and Russia. But on 19 February, top EU an...

With geopolitics in flux, alliances are shifting. United States President Donald Trump’s attacks on South Africa, including the suspension of government programmes, the boycott of its G20 presidency, and claims of ‘genocide’ against white farmers by Trump advisor Elon Musk have pushed Pretoria to embrace the European Union more closely. A few months ago, European Commission officials worried about South Africa’s ties with China and Russia. But on 19 February, top EU and South African officials talked pointedly about being ‘reliable partners’ and the importance of multilateral institutions such as the UN, the WTO and the ICC.

They will hold a bilateral summit on 13 March, during which Brussels will announce investments in clean energy projects, and possibly reach a deal on critical raw minerals. Yet the US withdrawal will leave some gaps. The EU and other humanitarian aid donors have indicated that they will try to bring forward payments to partners now facing cashflow problems because of the 90-day US aid suspension. But they are unlikely to boost aid budgets to cover the US’s absence. The immediate cost will be thousands of lives in Africa, and elsewhere. On areas such as security and migration, EU-Africa relations are more strained. The EU’s minerals trade deal with Rwanda and its reluctance to sanction Kigali for its invasion of Congo-Kinshasa infuriates South Africa but sends a clear message about regional security. 

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Ncube’s great expectations thwarted

High ambition has not been matched by progress on debt negotiations, as discussions with the IMF drag on

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube’s plan for an IMF deal paving the way for debt restructuring is being frustrated. Following a two-week mission to Harare that concluded on 13...

Targeting the cost of capital

A continent-wide risk assessor is taking on the big three rating agencies to counter the ‘Africa risk premium’

On the fringes of the African Union (AU) summit on 14 February, leaders announced the launch of the African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) planned for June to counter...

Pan-Africanism is on the ballot

Governments meeting in Addis Ababa and Abidjan will elect the continent’s new diplomatic and economic chiefs

Despite its lofty ambitions, the African Union continues to punch well below its weight, reliant on foreign donors to finance the bulk of its budget and hamstrung by...

Making enemies of the press

The country’s leading media group faces financial struggles and competition from social platforms, while foreign outlets expand in Nairobi

A highly competitive and – by the region’s standards – vibrant media culture is among the legacies of Nation Media Group (NMG) founder and owner, Prince Shah Karim...

Freetown falls out with the Hague over cocaine

A diplomatic row is brewing after the revelations about Jos Leijdekkers’s drugs empire

Top officials in Freetown have expressed annoyance at the time it took the Dutch government to apply for the extradition of convicted cocaine smuggler Jos Leijdekkers, despite telling...

Embaló seizes total power

With his close ally General Biaguê, the President has all but destroyed the country’s democracy within five years

Tensions are rising between President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition groupings over the date he is due to leave office. Embaló insists it is 4 September – that...

Pointers

Innovation delusion

On 28 January, President Emmerson Mnangagwa hosted ‘inventor’ Maxwell Chikumbutso at State House to demonstrate a ‘self-powering vehicle’. At the event, covered by state media and widely publicised...

Rivals tussle for Benin Bronzes

The opening of the Museum of West African Art (MOWAA) in Edo State’s Benin City won plaudits. But few noticed the absence of the objects it was designed...

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