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How diplomat Youssouf triumphed over politician Odinga in AU race

Raila Odinga
Raila Odinga

Kenya’s hopes of chairing the AU were thwarted – a blow to its candidate and to President Ruto’s prospects of re-election in 2027

In the end, African leaders chose the diplomat over the politician. Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf held off veteran Kenyan presidential candidate and dealmaker Raila Odinga to be elected as the next chair of the African Union Commission in Addis Ababa on 15 February replacing Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat.


Freetown falls out with the Hague over cocaine

Jos Leijdekkers
Jos Leijdekkers

A diplomatic row is brewing after the revelations about Jos Leijdekkers’s drugs empire

Top officials in Freetown have expressed annoyance at the time it took the Dutch government to apply for the extradition of convicted cocaine smuggler Jos Leijdekkers, despite telling...


As Kinshasa fumes, Kigali plots its next move

THE CONGO-KINSHASA CRISIS:  How the M23 and the Rwanda Defence Force took  over the Kivu provinces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Paul Kagame arrives in Dar es Salaam for a joint summit on the security situation in eastern DRC. Pic: @UrugwiroVillage

Regional officials seem resigned to Rwandan control over swathes of eastern Congo as the price of a ceasefire

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame is moving pieces at will around the regional chessboard in this deadliest of tournaments. His putative opponent in Kinshasa, President Félix Tshisekedi, is flailing,...


Pan-Africanism is on the ballot

Pic: @_AfricanUnion
Pic: @_AfricanUnion

Governments meeting in Addis Ababa and Abidjan will elect the continent’s new diplomatic and economic chiefs

Despite its lofty ambitions, the African Union continues to punch well below its weight, reliant on foreign donors to finance the bulk of its budget and hamstrung by...


Kinshasa cries foul on Arsenal FC

Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner and Lord Collins of Highbury, Accra, January 2025. Pic @kayikwambaT
Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner and Lord Collins of Highbury, Accra, January 2025. Pic @kayikwambaT

Foreign minister Wagner quietly dropped in to London to undermine Rwanda’s sponsorship deal with a football club known for its prominent Labour supporters

Congo-Kinshasa Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner took a quiet detour to London on 9-11 February to persuade influential football fans to pressure President Paul Kagame to pull his...


Embaló seizes total power

Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Pic: @Presidencia_GB
Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Pic: @Presidencia_GB

With his close ally General Biaguê, the President has all but destroyed the country’s democracy within five years

Tensions are rising between President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition groupings over the date he is due to leave office. Embaló insists it is 4 September – that...


President Bio keeps cocaine lord in the family

One of Europe’s most wanted criminals is the partner of one of the President’s daughters and has transferred his operations to Freetown. An Africa Confidential Special Report By Josef Skrdlik and Andrew Weir

Sierra Leone has been in a state of shock ever since one of Freetown’s most astonishing urban myths was confirmed as fact – that one of Europe’s most...

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Economic hits before and after votes

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

After the youth revolution in Dakar last year, an octogenarian may be running in the Ivorian elections

With voting nine months away, the campaigning and political tractations ahead of Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential elections are under way. The outcome will reverberate across the region. President Alassane...


Still the kingmaker

Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga
Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga

The coalition building ahead of 2027 may be shaped by Raila Odinga’s fate in the AU elections in Addis Ababa in mid-February

The coalitions that will contest Kenya’s general elections in August 2027 are rapidly taking shape. For President William Ruto, the first step involves integrating the Amani National Congress...


The Muhoozi succession recasts Kampala’s regional policy

Pic: @mkainerugaba
Pic: @mkainerugaba

President Museveni is planning his seventh presidential term but his son and heir apparent unsettles neighbouring states

As President Yoweri Museveni lays the groundwork for a seventh term next January, a pressing question remains, will he manage to control his mercurial son and heir apparent,...


After seizing Goma, Kigali’s rebels head south

Pic: @RwandaMoD
Pic: @RwandaMoD

Angola could play key role as Kagame-Tshisekedi conflict threatens region

When Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and its Congolese allies, the M23 militia, captured Goma, the capital of Kivu-Nord province, over the weekend of 25-26 January, they exposed the...


The year of voting dangerously

Vladimir Putin and Faustin-Archange Touadéra at the Kremlin, 16 January 2025. Pic: kremlin.ru
Vladimir Putin and Faustin-Archange Touadéra at the Kremlin, 16 January 2025. Pic: kremlin.ru

Accommodating one of Russia’s most profitable African operations, Touadéra balances competing foreign interests as he dismantles the local opposition

This year should be the year of elections in the Central African Republic. Local elections, already rescheduled four times, are due in July, with a general election following...


Playing the numbers game

2nd Bi-Annual Meeting of the National Consultative Committee on Statistics (NCCS), November 2024. Pic: National Bureau of Statistics

Political pressure is mounting on Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics ahead of the imminent release of its GDP rebasing data. The statistical exercise could more than double the...


Mineral riches

Pic: Erberto Zani / stock.adobe.com
Pic: Erberto Zani / stock.adobe.com

The European Union’s desperation to catch up with China’s mineral access is so great that it is willing to overlook evidence of mineral smuggling by M23 in eastern...


Kaka beset on all sides

Chad economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Chad economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Having struck out on his own, the President looks ill-equipped to meet the domestic political and foreign security challenges and faces major risks


Tshisekedi eyes a third term

Congo-K economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Congo-K economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Amid the security crisis in the Kivu provinces and geopolitical jockeying for Congo’s critical minerals, the President prioritises a constitutional change


Realpolitik and angry neighbours

Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita meets Algerian Minister of Justice Abderrachid Tebbi, emissary of President Abdelmajid Tebboune, Rabat, September 2022. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN
Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita meets Algerian Minister of Justice Abderrachid Tebbi, emissary of President Abdelmajid Tebboune, Rabat, September 2022. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN

The Maghreb’s sparring giants vie for influence as the Western Sahara stand-off dominates regional ties


Unity preserved but security lost

Somalia economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Somalia economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The damage caused by Ethiopia’s MoU has receded but political prospects are poor and morale in the national security forces is at rock bottom